Posted on 10/13/2009 6:08:47 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
The juiced up minority and youth vote that put Obama in the White House is fading. As long as Obama is not at the top of the ballot, the political landscape will revert to the Red / Blue divide.
The seat in OK was held by a Democrat maybe forever since that area used to be heavily Dem. This is far from a GOP stronghold in OK. Except for President and Congress, they have always leaned very much Dem in this area.
The two races that really foreshadow 2010.
Rasmusseen today has McDonnell leading Deeds, 50-43.
Public Policy Polling today has Christie leading Corzine, 40-39. 3rd Party candidate, Daggett, gets the rest.
The OK seat has only voted heavily Republican for national elections not for local elections. We kept getting closer with this seat and now we have won it!
We can’t oust a Speaker, once they’re elected, they’re locked in for two years. Even now with a 3-seat margin (our largest since about 1869), presuming it holds through next year’s election, we still have potential squishies the rodents might bribe (the arrogant apostate Puppet Speaker Traitor Kent ACTS like he’s still intending to keep his job, and what is even more galling, presuming the GOP doesn’t have the balls to strip him next year of the nomination, he might be able to persuade enough RINOs who had no problem debasing themselves to fellatiate Boss Hogg Naifeh for years to vote for him - with the whole Dem caucus aiding the cause).
The more numerous amount of seats we win (and target those that have voted for Boss Hogg in prior elections), the more likely we have of putting in the choice of the bulk of the caucus. It’s still outrageous one slimy little sophomore $hitstain can hold the entire majority party hostage.
So you can’t unseat the Speaker once he’s elected? Can you at least change the composition of the house committees and the committee chairmen?
I thought that since Canadian County (which is as rock-ribbed Republican a county as there is in OK) is in the district that it had a strong GOP lean to it even in state races, but I see that only a portion of Canadian is in the district. Based on the 1992 and 1996 presidential elction results (Clinton ran very well in parts of OK that still tend to vote Dem in state races), I would guess that Washita County (all of which is in the district) is a bit of a swing county in state races, while I would guess that the other two counties partially in the district (Caddo and Kiowa) are pretty strongly Democrat in state races.
That district had a GOP incumbent prior to Curt Cobb, he resigned to take a county job entitled “Clerk and Master.” The Dems ran his brother Ty for this seat, and we were besieged on the Nashville stations of slanderous ads against Pat Marsh in the past 10 days, which apparently some Dems now say backfired. Ty actually tried to run to the right of the Republican Marsh, got the right-to-life endorsement (I don’t know why Marsh didn’t), but apparently that endorsement was about as viscerally offensive to base liberal Democrat voters as getting an endorsement from Planned Parenthood would be to Conservatives for a Republican.
One problem for Ty Cobb was that it was reported he was too scared to debate Pat Marsh and dodged many, if not all, potential debate matchups. That was a bad sign that Cobb wasn’t up to the task, and why he and the State Dems threw everything but the kitchen sink into those non-stop tv ads. I actually never saw ONE ad by Pat Marsh.
I think with this, the Dems know 2010 is lost to reclaim the House (at least with their guys in charge, because even with the Puppet Speaker, he wasn’t enough to stop our party from electing the three statewide officeholders for the first time since Reconstruction and from ostensibly grabbing a majority on all of the county election boards, with a few exceptions).
They are terrified with what we’re going to do with the district lines. My Councilman in Nashville and one in the adjacent district, may be ginning up to run for the legislature, unthinkable under the current lines (and in Nashville, we have a 9D-1R delegation, obscenely out-of-whack, that were the GOP to draw them, and extend them partway into the adjacent counties, we might get 4 or 5, and unpacking the 1 hyper-GOP district and draw 2 marginal GOP seats in the South and SW part of the county, as we had in the 1980s, is just the bare minimum. A former House GOP Leader hailed from one of those districts, and they wiped out his seat deliberately). We’ve never had more than 2 House Republicans from Nashville in the modern era, probably not since the 1870s-90s.
From what I understand, we could only unseat Williams via impeachment, and that won’t happen. You’d have to have the Dem caucus go along. He’s technically committed no “legal” crime, but moral, yes. And no, the Speaker is extremely powerful, he and he alone decides the makeup of who runs the committees, and he gave most of the plum stuff to the rodents. We’re just stuck until January 2011 (unless Williams resigns beforehand, and why would he, when he has that much power and will be the last powerful position he’ll ever hold ?).
is that ty cobb related to THE ty cobb of baseball?
ya know, if the idiots in new jersey re elect corzine, then they get all the tax raises they deserve.
idiots.
Thanks for the ping. My Congresscritter, Marky Mark Schauer left a State Senate district open that we have a good shot at taking. That one is in November.
19th State Senate District, I believe. Bush won the district in 2004, but it went for Obama and Granholm (once, maybe twice).
Exactly! We have made inroads into this area over the years but for Russ to win this time is AWESOME. He put a lot of work into this. Most of Canadian County is rock-ribbed Republican but this portion is not as solid GOP. GOP didn’t do too well in the past in Indian counties but in recent years they are trending more Republican. Was actually shocked to see every County go for McCain including the ones that have a high Indian population.
Figured the Chickasaw would go for McCain but was shocked when Obama didn’t do well in some other counties with predominately Native American populations. Now Obama is having the Tribal Meeting and so far only the Cherokee and Choctaw have committed to going out of the 39 tribes in Oklahoma.
After 8 years of Brad Henry and now Obama, I look for this to be the trend setter for 2010 when Republicans take back a lot of the statewide offices. I am so glad we have term limits for Governor — the Obama kneepadder will soon be gone!
Minor correction, I forgot there were two Cobbs from that area, I got them confused. There is another Ty Cobb (meaning had this Cobb won tonight, there would’ve been two Ty Cobbs from nearby districts). The other Ty Cobb was the sole Democrat win last November over an incumbent Republican, Tom DuBois, who was mercilessly attacked by the rodents because of a party at his house that had some underaged kids drinking (although little definitive evidence the guy knew what was going on, and how often do teenagers break into a liquor stash ?). DuBois got appointed to the State Election Commission. This “other” Cobb should be heavily targeted and taken out next year.
Schauer left the seat on January 3 and they *still* haven’t held the special election?
From what I recall, Schauer represented a conservative district whose voters he fooled by claiming to be socially conservative and not having a bad voting record on guns.
What counties form the district that will be having the special election?
I doubt it. It seems to me that if yor last name is Cobb you might as well call your kid Tyrus or Ty (or Tyrone, I guess), and even if your name is Robert you might get tagged with Ty as a nickname.
Check out post 35, which explains that an adjoining district has a representative also named Ty Cobb. Talk about confusing! Good thing the other Ty Cobb lost yesterday, and not just because he was the Democrat.
It has all of Calhoun County which leans slightly democrat, but voted for Bush in 2004. It has most of Jackson County outside of the southern most part. Jackson leans slightly Republican but voted for Obama and has two dem state reps from the 2006 disaster. Calhoun County has one republican state rep and one democrat state rep.
The Republican Mike Nofs represented the most democrat state rep district of the group which was Schauer's old district. It has both Battle Creek and Albion. The democrat Marty Griffin was the mayor of Jackson and a state rep.
Most of the district leans Republican outside of Battle Creek, Springfield, City of Jackson, and most of all Albion (minority and also college). District Map
Thanks for the info (and the map). I see that President Bush carried the district with 49.25% in 2000 and with 53.00% in 2004; I don’t have town-and-city vote results for 2008, but it is clear that Obama carried the district with approximately 52%. The special election should be a real barn-burner.
These are countywide. I have to check which Jackson townships are not in the district.
Calhoun: (B1 - Bush won once, B2 - Bush won twice)
Obama won - Albion City, Battle Creek, Bedford, Homer (B2), Marshall City (B2), Springfield, Tekonsha (B2)
McCain won - Albion Twp, Athens, Burlington, Clarence, Clarenton, Convis, Eckford, Emmett, Fredonia, Lee, LeRoy, Marengo, Marshall Township, Newton, Pennfield, Sheridan.
Jackson:(B1 - Bush won once, B2 - Bush won twice) Obama won - Blackman (B2), Jackson, Leoni (B1), Waterloo (B2).
McCain won - Columbia, Concord, Grass Lake, Hanover, Henrietta, Liberty, Napoleon, Norvell, Parma, Pulaski, Rives, Sandstone, Spring Arbor, Springport, Summit, Tompkins.
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