Knock me over with a feather.
McHugh is very conservative.
Unfortunately, the only "reliable" conservatives in the New York delegation (in recent years anyway) were Vito Fossella, Tom Reynolds, and Randy Kuhl. The remaining New York Republican Congressmen ranged from moderate center-right types to total RINO douchebags. Chris Lee just got elected, so he hasn't complied a record long enough to judge.
We can hope for two things: one, the NYGOP nominates a strong candidate with a good solid conservative record (the latter of which McHugh lacked). Two, the NYGOP doesn't screw this one up the way they did with Tedisco's race. If they manage to lose this one as well, they'll be down to a pathetic TWO congressional seats out of nearly 30.
If I had to place a bet, I'd say they eek out of a win here and get at least an acceptable Republican to replace to McHugh. However -- given the NYGOP's pathetic track record since 2006 -- I am not optimistic. This district isn't nearly as Republican as Gillibrand's. It's very possible the NYGOP could screw up and lose another seat to the RATs.