Posted on 09/24/2008 12:14:10 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
InTrade currently has the candidates roughly tied. As of this writing, McCain is at around 49 and falling, while Obama is at around 51 and rising. Still, that’s basically a tie. The question is, where do we go from here?
The arguments for why Obama will ultimately win this have been explored ad nauseum over the last several months in a variety of contexts. They are straightforward: Parties rarely win third terms, President Bush is unpopular, Obama is charismatic (while McCain is not), the country is ready for change (which McCain does not embody), and Obama’s cash and ground game advantages will translate into a massive surge in Democratic support on election day, which will improve Democratic performance up and down the ticket.
Less has been said about why McCain will win. Maybe this is because the possibility seemed so absurd to many viewers of the political process not two weeks ago, that little commentary has been done on the actual scenario for a McCain win, or why things look different than they looked a few months – or even weeks – ago.
Let me be clear from the outset though – this isn’t to say I think McCain will win. I actually still think Obama is the favorite by reasonable odds -- probably 55-45. What I’m interested in is this: If we wake up the morning after election day looking at a McCain Presidency, and people talk about the “shocking” result, what were the warning signs? What should we have been looking at in order to see this coming?
I think a good way to approach this is to take a look at all of the supposed Obama advantages, and look at the evidence why they won’t play out the way that we have expected that they would
(Excerpt) Read more at thenextright.com ...
Gallup wants me to believe that Obama wins less of the white vote than Kerry did, less of the Jewish vote than Kerry did, less of the Catholic vote than Kerry did, less of the women’s vote than Kerry did, but he’s going to win it overall.
Gallup also tells me that over the last month, McCain has gained in the democrat vote, gained in the independent vote, and held steady in the Republican vote, but lost 4 points overall.
That's easy - - Americans will not elect these two the First Couple.
Do you have any links showing that?
Yes, the numbers in the national polls don’t add up when you look at the internals vs the overall.
Fauxbama is not connecting with Blue Dog dems at all, the blue collar sensibilities do not connect with his arrogant urbanite empty suit slick used car salesman act. This isn’t a problem in the south, where he never had a prayer of carrying a state anyway, but it is a HUGE issue in the rust belt, where blue dogs rule the day. You don’t win these states without performing well with these groups, and Fauxbama falls flatter than a pancake with them.
VA is not switching parties this cycle, that’s wishful thinking, its not going to happen. Nor is OH or FL.
IA may hold for Fauxbama, but that’s primarily due to McCain’s long term opposition to ethanol subsidies. CO, may, though I’m not convinced it will.
However, WI, MI, MN and PA won’t hold for Fauxbama, any one of these states flips and Fauxbama is toast, and I believe he’ll lose at least 2 of them.
PA has been trending right for many elections, any democrat was going to have trouble with this state, though do to the dour economy and the unpopularity of Bush, it may have been possible for some other dem to possibly hold of PA going red for another cycle, they can’t stop the long term trending that will continue indefinately. Fauxbama however has no chance of winning PA.
In 2004 Kerry eeked out a statistical win in PA that was smaller as a percentage of votes cast, than the loss he had in OH. R’s and D’s always like to cite if just 80k people in Ohio had voted differently Kerry would have been president. Well the reality is Kerry only won PA by about 140k votes, which was as a percentage of votes cast in PA a smaller percentage win than Bush’s in OH, and this only came about with the entire state machine AND all the blue dogs coming out hard for Kerry. That’s not going to happen this time, Rendel ain’t going to mobilize the state machine, and blue dogs aren’t supporting him.
Fauxbama is in trouble folks, BIG trouble, don’t let folks tell you otherwise. I’m not saying don’t fight every day hard, but don’t buy into the hype.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.