Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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Posted on 01/03/2008 1:00:16 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
It looks like the Politico website has another fascinating scoop full of un-substantiated and un-named sources.
That is that John McCain's campaign is literally hanging by a thread. He is low on money and fallen to a fourth place tie with Ron Paul in Iowa. Sources (unnamed) say that a McCain shellacking in Iowa will likely drop him out of the running in New Hampshire where is organization is running on fumes.
In Iowa McCain has gone from 13% and high hopes of pulling a surprise to falling to 10% and a tie with a surging Ron Paul. UPDATE: ARG poll confirms the McCain slide in Iowa. McCain has gone from 17% on Dec. 23rd to 11% as of yesterday (Jan. 2). While Thompson continues to climb and increase his lead on McCain.
Other sources say that McCain's slippage in Iowa has concerned his camp so much that they have attempted to leak an un-substantiated rumor that Fred Thompson (though leading in the polls and leading in fundraising)is likely to drop out and support McCain. This could possibly be John McCain's "who me?" moment that reminds voters of the depths of McCain's pettiness.
It is that Ron Paul surge that unnamed and anonymous sources inside the McCain campaign are most concerned with. Because those same Ron Paul independents will likely help Paul much more in New Hampshire than they will John McCain. Remember in 2000 it was those very independents that McCain relied upon.
It is not very likely that McCain can survive a fourth (possibly fifth) place showing in Iowa, then lose his "independents" to Ron Paul and Obama in New Hampshire and there is rank speculation that McCain will indeed drop out soon and endorse his old pal Fred Thompson.
Thompson Story Fell Apart
Of course the Politico website also tried to pass off a rumor that the surging Fred Thompson might actually bow out of the race if he did not take second place in Iowa. Of course Politco reporter Jonathan Martin fell back on a "jocular" moment to base his speculation on.
Yet all indications from the Thompson campaign are that Jonathan Martin and the Politico have again "stepped in it." Word on the street is that the Thompson campaign, over the holidays, raised $1.8 million dollars. Also Byron York, who is actually on the ground in Iowa, recently spoke with a top advisor, on the record, to Thompson who said "I can't put enough adjectives in front of the 'deny' to accurately describe how vehemently I'm denying the story."
Let's not forget that it was this same "Politico" website that got seriously busted for misreporting the facts of a fire hall visit by Thompson.
NOTE: Of course if one were to read the Politico hit piece on Fred Thompson this morning you would understand impetus behind this post. Note how I easily pieced together a scenario based on unnamed and anonymous sources "inside" the McCain campaign? Notice how more realistic THAT scenario sounded than the made up scenario of Thompson?
Do these folks at Politico have any credibility at all? I mean I know I am a Thompson supporter but wow... Who writes a hit piece like that the day of the Iowa Caucus? Who lists anonymous sources "inside" the campaign?
Rasmussen today has Romney barely ahead, everybody’s between 13 and 18 percent. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history
They might as well. I count a total of 3 advertisers left on their site.
3 months ago, they had 15.
I’m hoping for a brokered convention. It could be an unforeseen consequence of a front loaded primary schedule with super-tuesday. If low $ candidates pick states they can win in to spend their funds and time (and do) then we could end up with it more easily than some expect. I’ve done no analysis on this . . . just a “vibe” I get from a guy like Huckabee coming up so quickly and being so vulnerable in states out west and up north with fewer evangelical voters.
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I would love to see a brokered convention.
***The chances of a brokered convention are 15% per Intrade futures.
REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M 15.0 20.0 15.0 60 0
Intrade just showed McCain taking the LEAD for the nomination within the last couple of days. It’s not that likely that he will drop out.
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 27.2 28.0 28.0 174309 +4.0
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 22.5 23.7 22.5 111892 -1.3
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 23.1 23.9 23.1 143890 -4.7
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 12.1 12.9 12.9 92267 +1.9
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 7.2 7.9 8.0 95151 +1.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.6 2.9 2.7 100493 -0.3
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE
Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.3 0.8 0.6 111028 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.4 60856 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG
Michael Bloomberg to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 36197 0
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 31967 0
Thompson leads the GOP pack in terms of dropout likelihood. The only gainer on this contract today is Romney, probably for planting the fred dropout rumor and indicators he isn’t winning in Iowa today.
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 10.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 10.2
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 5.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 1.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 5.1
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 9.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 35.2
Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the true conservative, Hunter.
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The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
By the way, I love all the stories about this candidate or that candidate “surging”. Although they will never give the military any credit, the media recognizes when a word has developed a positive connotation.
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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Thank you.
It makes more sense than the earlier story, but still.
It embarrasses me no end to ask this — what precisely is a “brokered” convention and is it a good or bad thing?
Oh look....an essay question....
I have not been withholding facts that bear negatively on Hunter.
As a matter of fact, for several debates, I posted Huckabee as the winner with the Intrade analysis. Then when I posted Hunter as the winner, there was a bunch of invective aimed my way. Why do you think that is?
Not this ---- again.
Ya just had to do it, didn’t you...;-)
Did you hear about some college in OH that is banning certain words? "Surge" is one of them.
I assume this is just a fake rumor to poke fun at the “Fred’s Dropping Out and Endorsing McCain” lie posted earlier...but I wish it would happen! (McCain dropping that is!)
A brokered convention is one where no single candidate arrives at the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination, either by holding a majority of delegates, or such a large plurality and advantage over all the other candidates that winning the nomination is a certainty.
In this circumstance, leaders of different factions of the party, who have effective control over large blocks of delegates, will gather together and hash out a deal to cobble together enough delegate votes to put someone over the top and produce a nominee.
At this point, the nominee may not even be someone who had been running previously.
sitetest
I have a general disregard for the MSM, and a specific suspicion of anyone associated with the Washington Post after the Macaca coverage of George Allen. Therefore, I have extreme suspicion of the motives of the Politico (formed by former WaPo staffers) and its rapid ascension as a leading punditry of politics.
To me, this is another echo chamber effect, where someone plants a story and then the rest of the MSM echos the story all day long, presumably because "the story" is now the story -- it is no longer about the factual basis for the allegations (or lack thereof).
This gives the MSM cover to continue talking about "the story," the denials of "the story," the investigation of "the story," etc. It is nothing but self-aggrandizing of the MSM, by the MSM, and for the MSM.
-PJ
Please tell me you are joking. “Banning” words? Does the college understand the meaning of Orwellian?
Nice thought, but lately, Politico is about as reliable a source of information as TASS used to be.
Steelerfan - they are the personification of the word “Orwellian”
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