His support maybe a mile wide and one inch deep at this point. We don't know that yet but the fact that he generates so much animosity among certain alledged elements of the GOP means that they must think he's going to win the nomination.... At this stage it's mostly name recognition that is driving the apparent placement of the potential candidates on the leaderboard. The ability to raise funds will begin to separate the contenders very quickly as this is going to be an absolute fiasco as to the amount of money needed to run a strong primary and general campaign. The days of slipping in with a few bucks are gone.
Here are the latest polls showing placement of contenders. I doubt if a lot of them can hang around after things really get to rolling with very limited funds. However Dick Morris speculated that one of the single digits could be the nominee as he thought that the top three, Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich would all falter because of personal/political problems. So who knows at this stage but some are really scared it seems.
Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Jan. 24-25, 2007. N=332 registered Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 6. |
. |
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"Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between [see below]. Who would you MOST like to see nominated?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward [see below]?" |
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. |
||||||
| Rudy Giuliani |
John McCain |
Unsure | ||||
| % | % | % | ||||
|
1/24-25/07 |
48 | 44 | 8 | |||
. |
||||||
| Rudy Giuliani |
Mitt Romney |
Unsure | ||||
| % | % | % | ||||
|
1/24-25/07 |
72 | 17 | 11 | |||
. |
||||||
| John McCain |
Mitt Romney |
Unsure | ||||
| % | % | % | ||||
|
1/24-25/07 |
69 | 19 | 12 | |||
|
|
||||||
Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Jan. 22-23, 2007. N=441 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. |
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|
. |
||||||
"Now I'm going to read a list of candidates who might be running for the Republican Party presidential nomination in 2008. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, listen carefully to the names and then tell me which candidate you would be most likely to vote for. . . ." Names rotated |
||||||
|
. |
||||||
| % | ||||||
| John McCain |
30 |
|||||
| Rudy Giuliani |
26 |
|||||
| Newt Gingrich |
14 |
|||||
| Mitt Romney |
5 |
|||||
| Sam Brownback |
3 |
|||||
| George Pataki |
2 |
|||||
| Tom Tancredo |
1 |
|||||
| Chuck Hagel |
1 |
|||||
| Mike Huckabee |
1 |
|||||
| Jim Gilmore |
1 |
|||||
| Other (vol.) |
1 |
|||||
| Unsure |
14 |
|||||
| Won't vote (vol.) |
1 |
|||||
|
. |
||||||
|
"What if your choices for the Republican nomination were just John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani -- which one would you vote for?" Names rotated |
||||||
|
. |
||||||
| % | ||||||
| John McCain |
43 |
|||||
| Rudy Giuliani |
40 |
|||||
| Mitt Romney |
8 |
|||||
| None of these (vol.) |
1 |
|||||
| Unsure |
8 |
|||||
|
|
||||||
CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Jan. 19-21, 2007. N=365 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ± 5. |
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|
. |
||||||
"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008. . . ." Names rotated |
||||||
|
. |
||||||
| 1/19-21/07 | 12/5-7/06 | 11/17-19/06 | 10/27-29/06 | 8/30 - 9/2/06 | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | ||
| Rudy Giuliani |
32 |
29 |
33 |
29 |
32 |
|
| John McCain |
26 |
24 |
30 |
27 |
21 |
|
| Newt Gingrich |
9 |
13 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
|
| Mitt Romney |
7 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
|
| Jim Gilmore |
3 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| George Pataki |
3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
|
| Sam Brownback |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
| Chuck Hagel |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| Mike Huckabee |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| Duncan Hunter |
1 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| Ron Paul |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| Tom Tancredo |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| Tommy Thompson |
1 |
2 |
3 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Unsure |
12 |
23 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
|
| Bill Frist |
n/a |
n/a |
3 |
6 |
4 |
|
| George Allen |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
7 |
|
|
|
||||||
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Jan. 16-19, 2007. N=344 leaned Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 5. Fieldwork by TNS. |
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|
. |
||||||
|
"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated |
||||||
|
. |
||||||
| 1/16-19/07 | 12/7-11/06 | |||||
| % | % | |||||
| Rudy Giuliani |
34 |
34 |
||||
| John McCain |
27 |
26 |
||||
| Newt Gingrich |
9 |
12 |
||||
| Mitt Romney |
9 |
5 |
||||
| George Pataki |
2 |
3 |
||||
| Sam Brownback |
1 |
1 |
||||
| Jim Gilmore |
1 |
n/a |
||||
| Mike Huckabee |
1 |
- |
||||
| Ron Paul |
1 |
n/a |
||||
| Tom Tancredo |
1 |
- |
||||
| Tommy Thompson |
1 |
2 |
||||
| Chuck Hagel |
- |
- |
||||
| Duncan Hunter |
- |
1 |
||||
| None of these (vol.) |
2 |
6 |
||||
| Unsure |
9 |
9 |
||||
| Wouldn't vote (vol.) |
1 |
- |
||||
|
|
||||||
Gallup Poll. Jan. 12-14, 2007. N=412 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5. |
||||||
|
. |
||||||
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated. Rice was included in the list of candidates in 2006. |
||||||
|
. |
||||||
| 1/12-14/07 | 12/11-14/06 | 11/9-12/06 | ||||
| % | % | % | ||||
| Rudy Giuliani |
31 |
28 |
28 |
|||
| John McCain |
27 |
28 |
26 |
|||
| Newt Gingrich |
10 |
8 |
7 |
|||
| Mitt Romney |
7 |
4 |
5 |
|||
| George Pataki |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|||
| Tommy Thompson |
2 |
2 |
n/a |
|||
| Jim Gilmore |
2 |
n/a |
n/a |
|||
| Sam Brownback |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|||
| Mike Huckabee |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|||
| Chuck Hagel |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|||
| Condoleezza Rice (vol.) |
1 |
12 |
13 |
|||
| Duncan Hunter |
- |
1 |
- |
|||
| Someone else |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|||
| None (vol.) |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|||
| Unsure |
10 |
7 |
7 |
|||
| George Allen |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
|||
| Bill Frist |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
|||
|
|
||||||
Funny, I was thinking Platt River to describe Rudy's position as well.
I agree with you that it is early yet. And money - big money - is going to be required. I like anyone who takes votes away from McCain at this point :-)
And on the dem side - I am not so sure that Hillary is invincible :-)
This will be a fascinating year. I do agree with others that it is accelerated now. If CA moves up their date - as well as FL and SC - things will be over in a flash!
Thanks again.
In this election you have to be able to raise serious money very fast and I don't see it out of anyone but Rudy. Morris is on something if thinks someone is going to come from behind. In 2000 GW led most of the way except for taking the early hit in NH and righted the ship in SC. Most forget about that.
You don't get Boone Pickens and Ricks on your side in TX and not be a serious contender -- they don't back people that are not serious. Oil people are contributing especially after the latest attacks by the Dems in the House and Senate. Their livelihood depends on a Republican being elected -- know here in OK our oil people are very skittish and some are going to Rudy this far out.
Social conservatives will never understand the dynamics of a Presidential race if on here is any evidence. Takes money to run and the people donating are the big money folks which will equate to the candidate being able to buy ads and go on the campaign trail without worrying about raising money. A Presidential campaign today is not like the 80's -- today it takes a huge campaign war chest along with a candidate that can appeal to a broad spectrum of people. WOT and Economics will be the focus of this campaign IMHO.