Posted on 08/25/2005 2:56:03 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
After Taft Can Ohio Republicans recover?
By W. James Antle III
Last week’s conviction of Gov. Bob Taft on four misdemeanor ethics charges has put another dent in the Ohio Republican party’s image of invincibility — and cast a long shadow over the party’s 2006 candidates.
Over the last decade, the GOP has consolidated power by racking up win after win in the Buckeye State. Republicans today hold every statewide constitutional elected office (including uninterrupted control of the governorship since 1991), both U.S. Senate seats, and majorities in both houses of the state legislature, the state supreme court, and Ohio’s congressional delegation. But these Republican majorities haven’t aged well.
The problem runs deeper than undisclosed gubernatorial golf outings and the state’s rare-coin investment scandal. Republicans were swept into office during the 1990s on a platform of low taxes, fiscal responsibility, and robust economic growth. In recent years, they have instead given Ohioans higher taxes, increased spending, and a generally lackluster economy.
Taft and the Republican-controlled legislature boosted the sales tax by 20 percent, a $2.9 billion “temporary” tax increase that some would like to give more staying power. While this was justified on predictable deficit-hawk grounds, state expenditures continued their upward trajectory. In the years preceding the sales-tax hike, spending grew twice as fast as inflation and more than ten times as fast as the population — despite unified Republican control of state government.
For two years running, Taft has received an "F" in the Cato Institute’s "Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors," ranking him toward the bottom. When he did recommend lower income-tax rates earlier this year, he proposed offsetting tax hikes elsewhere: doubling the tax on beer and wine, boosting levies on cigarettes by 45 cents a pack, and increasing electricity taxes by one-third.
In short, much of what conservatives fear about ossified Republican majorities is on display in Ohio. But Taft (who refuses to resign) is mercifully term limited and Democrats aren’t alone in campaigning against the mess in Columbus.
“I’m not the second coming of Bob Taft,” insists Ohio secretary of state Ken Blackwell, the frontrunner for next year’s GOP nomination for governor. As if to prove it, his stump speeches hit the state Republican establishment as hard as if they were his Democratic general-election opponents.
Blackwell describes the budget proposed by Taft and passed by the Republican House as continuing “tax and spend policies.” He points out that the 71-percent increase in the state budget over the last ten years occurred “under Republican leadership.” He favorably compares his tenure as secretary of state to that of his predecessor, a fellow named Taft, and zings Republicans who “campaign like Ronald Reagan but govern like Dick Celeste,” Ohio’s last Democratic governor.
The implication is that his two rivals for the nomination, Attorney General Jim Petro and Auditor Betty Montgomery, are Taft-Celeste clones rather than Reagans. Blackwell points out that he has “always been pro-life,” reminding pro-lifers that Montgomery is pro-choice and Petro switched to their side only five years ago. He is calling for a constitutional amendment to limit state spending growth to 3.5 percent or inflation plus population increase, an idea Petro calls a “gimmick” and that Montgomery argues would be catastrophic.
Blackwell’s unusually aggressive campaign against fellow Republicans has two objectives. The first is to win the primary ballots of conservatives fed up by their party’s big-government drift. The second is to be able to compete in the general election without taking on Taft’s baggage.
Unsurprisingly, a common criticism of Blackwell among some longtime Republicans is that he doesn’t play well with others. These veteran party activists feel that he shreds Reagan’s eleventh commandment, fails to give his colleagues sufficient credit for their accomplishments, and crosses the line by criticizing his opponents’ GOP bona fides.
Yet this combative approach does appear to be paying dividends. Blackwell has propelled himself from the back of the Republican gubernatorial pack to the lead in most polls. A July poll paid for by Blackwell’s campaign shows him leading Montgomery by 15 points, Petro by 16.
Charges of party disloyalty have been blunted by the fact that Blackwell tends to break with Republican leaders only when it involves siding with the GOP’s conservative base. When Taft and Petro came out against last fall’s Ohio marriage amendment, for instance, Blackwell was prominently on the side of the 73 percent of Republicans who ultimately voted for it. The chairman of the Ohio Republican party reportedly dismissed a Blackwell-backed effort to repeal the sales-tax increase as a “ridiculous media stunt,” but you don’t have to be Karl Rove to figure out whose position was shared by the party rank-and-file.
But this only shows that the first part of Blackwell’s strategy, winning over conservatives, is working. It is less clear how the swing voters he needs to become governor are responding to his campaign. Montgomery and Petro are both less ideologically polarizing figures, especially since national Democrats have sought to make Blackwell the Katherine Harris of the 2004 presidential election.
Then again, the eventual Republican nominee may discover that the biggest obstacle to victory isn’t the Democratic candidate — it’s Bob Taft.
— W. James Antle III is an assistant editor at The American Conservative.
While I'm disappointed that J.C. Watts decided not to run for governor of Oklahoma, I'm heartened that Ken Blackwell of Ohio and Lynn Swann of Pennsylvania give us two excellent chances of electing a black conservative Republican to a governorship in 2006. I hope all conservatives rally around Blackwell's candidacy in Ohio.
*Ken Blackwell Ping*
I think conservatives will support Blackwell for governor: the trouble is, AUH2O, there aren't enough conservatives left in OH to elect even Warren G. Harding (our last Ohio president, and his record was not nearly as bad as history has judged it) again.
Blackwell isn't part of the Taft group. That's a bigtime positive right now since Taft's popularity hoversaround Geoffrey Fieger territory. A Taft Republican will lose bigtime right now, and may take the rest of the ticket down with him. Blackwell may be the reformer and may be able to blunt the "throw the bums out" mentality down there.
Right now, there's a growing discontent with the GOP among conservatives - and the main issue is fiscal irresponsibility. Speaking as one myself, we need to get our books in order ASAP, or another Perot or worse may come back and get 20% of the vote in 2008.
"there aren't enough conservatives left in OH to elect even Warren G. Harding (our last Ohio president)"
Which is why they'll do everything possible not to nominate him. You can't run an electable, conservative, black Republican. It will upset the applecart.
Besides, RINOS don't like "his kind" any better than Deimmycraps do -- and I'm not just referring to his conservatism.
It'd be a damn shame if a RINO like Taft were to torpedo the chances to elect a genuine conservative like Blackwell. After two terms Blackwell would be well positioned for a run for the Presdency in 2016, as hopefully Hillary won't be up for reelection in 2012.
Seeing as how conservatives have obviously held their nose and supported less-than-conservative Republicans in Ohio, one would hope the 'moderates' would have the decency to return the favor if Blackwell wins the nomination, and not undermine him as their counterparts in Kansas did to a conservative candidate for governor back in 2002.
And only 73% of Republicans in Ohio voted to preserve marriage last year?
Blackwell also has another weapon in his arsenal that the other GOP candidates don't have, which is the black vote. In his past elections, Blackwell typically pulls in a big share from Cincinatti and closes the gap in Cuyahoga County (though not completely). Strickland would have to do overwhelmingly better in the rural areas, beyond the usual Democratic strongholds like Youngstown and Mahoning County, and probably have to pull in big numbers in Columbus. Even then, I'm not sure how he would offset Blackwell's numbers in the cities in addition to Clermont, Warren, etc.
Now, if Blackwell loses black support, we may have a different story.
He absolutely has GOT to win this thing. Taft needs to resign immediately, and if he took this newbie Lieutenant-Governor with him (of whom I know nothing about), Blackwell BECOMES the Governor.
"Seeing as how conservatives have obviously held their nose and supported less-than-conservative Republicans in Ohio, one would hope the 'moderates' would have the decency to return the favor if Blackwell wins the nomination, and not undermine him as their counterparts in Kansas did to a conservative candidate for governor back in 2002."
The article is correct: Ken Blackwell is the strongest GOP candidate in the gubenatorial race.
I actually think Blackwell could win the general. He'd get almost all the registered GOP vote. As far as the independent vote, he'd get a good enough share just because he is the anti-Taft and independent voters that at least lean slightly GOP may still prefer his solid conservatism to a Democrat. He would also get at least a SMALL percentage higher black vote.
I wonder how he did with the black vote during his Sec of State elections?
I am not too well-versed in Ohio politics, but I agree that he could win the general election. In fact, w/o the state GOP's troubles, I'd say he would probably be a favorite to win. But those troubles do exist, and it looks like the Dems are going to nominate a guy who can pass himself off as a moderate (Strickland is it???). With those two factors in play, I think Blackwell will need unified support for the state GOP to win. By that I don't mean the vocal support of those who have put the party in such a precarious position, but rather he simply needs to not be undermined by them out of pettiness and vindictiveness if he wins the nomination.
See post 8. Pretty well for a Republican I think.
Blackwell...the Black Ronald Reagan...
Poor Youngstown. How long can it hold on? I passed through there on Aug. 1: it looked forlorn, but most of Ohio looks quite well off and appears prosperous despite their bloated governments.
You forgot to mention the Rev. Keith Butler, frontrunner for the GOP Senate nomination in Michigan. We are fortunate to have so many qualified black candidates running for statewide office next year, and if any of the gubernatorial or Senate candidates win, it will send shockwaves throughout the system.
You're very right about this. Ken Blackwell is the only candidate with a plan and a platform for improving the economy and public sector of Ohio. The other two candidates are just Taft-Lite. In fact, Bob Taft may have single-handedly ended the Taft family legacy.
KEN BLACKWELL FOR GOVERNOR!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.