My adopted congressperson.
Posted on 08/17/2005 6:30:40 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Don't sell Harris short in '06
Last week, GOP Rep. Katherine Harris of Florida kicked off her campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. While this should be a much-ballyhooed quest in Republican circles, too few GOP insiders seem to be excited by Harris’s launch. This is a mistake.
Katherine Harris is going to win this election for reasons that I’ll outline in this column. But before making the case that needs to be made, let me make a few disclosures. Yes, I did poll for Harris’s successful bids for secretary of state and Congress. But since 2003, I have not served Harris, providing me an opportunity for an objective view of her candidacy.
Harris’s advantages start with her celebrity status, coupled with the low expectations that surround her bid. Let’s face it: Voters today are more interested in celebrities than in politicians. More Americans read People than Time. More people follow “American Idol” than C-SPAN’s “Road to the White House.”
Celebrity commands attention. When Katherine Harris comes to town, people will want to get in on the action. And because of the nature of criticism that the media have aimed at Harris, people will expect her to disappoint.
But when voters see Katherine as she really is — a smart, vivacious and engaging woman — they will be shocked. Pleasantly shocked. There is no way that Katherine Harris won’t exceed expectations, and that’s a major plus.
Expectations are a competitive advantage too. Bill Nelson will always underperform his résumé. Floridians accustomed to statewide officeholders of the stature of Jeb Bush, Bob Graham, Lawton Chiles and even lately Mel Martinez will be disappointed every time they are exposed to the incumbent Democrat. He’s a yawner. “How did this guy ever win?” they’ll wonder. Nelson reached the Senate only by besting an even more boring former Rep. Bill McCollum.
Another key advantage for Harris is her standing in what I call “Old Florida.” I don’t mean among senior citizens but rather among voters whose families have lived in Florida for generations. This is a relatively small yet key swing vote in the Sunshine State.
Until the 1980s, Florida almost always elected Democrats to statewide offices. Even during the succeeding decades, numerous populist or business-friendly Democrat candidates have been elected. For example, in 1994, when nearly every conservative in America won their elections, Jeb Bush lost to Lawton Chiles. “Walkin’ Lawton” was a special favorite of Old Florida. More recently, Old Florida was attracted to Betty Castor, the 2004 Democratic nominee against Mel Martinez. If not for Old Florida’s votes for Castor, Martinez would have won by a huge margin.
As a descendant of Florida citrus icon Ben Hill Griffin, Harris will be the choice of Old Florida that considers roots over ideology, party or even candidate image.
There are some voters who care about ideology, however, and even here Harris has a comparative advantage. As a proven conservative, Harris will win the ideological vote from the liberal Nelson.
Nelson ultimately will be perceived as more liberal than any Florida Democrat elected in modern times — more than Bob Graham, more than Lawton Chiles. Because Graham and Chiles had spent many years cultivating a moderate, mainstream image, Republicans could never make the “liberal” label stick to them, even when it was deserved. But Nelson has no such immunities, so his demonstrably liberal voting record will send voters to Harris.
Even among non-ideological moderates, Harris will attract a surprising level of support. From the beginning of her service in Congress, Harris devoted herself to a long-standing commitment to environmental protection issues. She has also developed an impressive set of accomplishments and credentials on affordable-housing issues. Not every Republican has such documented credentials that can appeal to crossover voters.
These issues will allow Harris to attract some Democratic votes, easily offsetting any Republican votes that go to Nelson because of lingering angst over Harris’s handling of the 2000 election as secretary of state.
Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.
Let's see..... Bill Nelson is a "Knob".....Kathleen Harris is the "Real Thing".......who would I vote for?
DOH!!
*Florida Senate Race Ping*
BTW, I found this article through http://dalythoughts.com/, which is run by the talented FReeper Dales.
If there isn't a knock down drag out bloody primary fight then I think Harris will be well positioned to win the general. It will be up to her campaign to coordinate and make the GOTV happen and if she does then she should win, jmo.
I agree that Katherine Harris is a good person who's been unfairly maligned. Unfortunately, the villification has worked.
We won't know that until the votes are counted.
My adopted congressperson.
The writer got everything right except this part. "Old Florida" or as I call them "the good old boys" did NOT go uniformly for Castor. She really screwed the pooch with Old Florida. Maybe is was the Al Arian thing, maybe it was the Limbaugh gaff. I can't say for sure, because I'm not one of them, and they ain't talkin', but she did something bad wrong.
"The writer got everything right except this part. "Old Florida" or as I call them "the good old boys" did NOT go uniformly for Castor."
I agree with everything you've said. And my analysis is actually political "water witching," but that doen't make it wrong. I'm related by marriage to precisely the "Old Florida" you describe.
It makes absolutely no sense to me either, but I've learned to "read the sign" for when they'll re-elect a sheriff that got caught groping teen-age girls working in his restaurant, and when they'll turn away from somebody who'll give them exactly what they want.
Long story short, Harris has "got it": Castor didn't.
Why don't you post them on the next Harris thread?
I took a look at that Martinez/Castor race to see where she did better than Kerry, perhaps in indication of where "Old Florida" may have supported her, or at least some of it. Perhaps those of you more familiar with Florida can glean something from the results, where Harris might do better than Martinez. In the other counties, Bush and Martinez ran almost even or in similar proportions. This is what was significantly different for me to note.
Martinez dropped a few thousand votes in Citrus County, turning a nearly 10,000 vote lead for Bush into a near 3,000 vote lead for himself.
Dixie County: Again, dropoff for Martinez and bump for Castor, though he still won the county. Dropoff was about 1,000 votes.
Duval: Martinez still had a big win over Castor, but Bush's win was bigger by about 15,000.
Flagler: Martinez loses narrowly while Bush wins by about 1,000.
Franklin: Same as Flager
Hamilton: Martinez narrowly loses, Bush narrowly wins, with each under a margin of 1,000 votes.
Hillsborough: One of the biggest splits in the vote count. Bush wins by 31,444 votes, while Martinez loses by 22,967.
Lafayette: Tiny county here. Goes for Bush in a landslide, while breaking almost even for Martinez and Castor.
Liberty: Barely goes for Castor by 11 votes. Bush gets about a 900 vote margin here.
Madison: Another Bush/Castor county. Bush squeaked by, Martinez lost by about 1,000.
Manatee, Marion: Martinez drops about 1,000 from Bush's total in each of these counties, while Castor picks up from Kerry's total by about 4,000. (Martinez still wins these, though)
Martinez narrowly won Miami-Dade, doing much better than Bush (Not that he was expected to win it anyway).
Martinez narrowly carried Orange County by 572 votes, while Bush lost it by only 815 votes.
Pasco was not as kind to Martinez as to Bush, shaving off about 10,000 from Bush's total to Martinez. Castor gets a 6,000 vote boost here from Kerry.
Bush scraped out a narrow win in Pinellas County by 226 votes, while Martinez lost it by 36,811 votes. Perhaps the biggest split between the presidential and senatorial races.
Martinez drops about 20,000 in Polk County, and Castor picks up about 7,000 from Kerry's.
Sarasota delivers another hit to Martinez, giving him only a 4,000 margin over Castor, while Bush wins it handily.
Volusia: Bush didn't win this county, and neither did Martinez, though he loses by a bigger margin, dropping 7,000 from Bush's total.
Well, at least we know why the Florida senate race was such a nailbiter. Bush's high turnout is probably got Martinez over the finish line, or at least out of recount territory.
(...and in California/San Diego we could REALLY use her!!!)
I think a lot of the difference between the Bush and Martinez totals was due to Castor's and Martinez's respective "home-field advantage." Castor is from the Tampa Bay area, which helped her run far stronger than Kerry in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota and Manatee Counties; Martinez is Cuban and is from Orlando, which helped him run stronger than Bush in Miami-Dade and Orange Counties.
The other area where Castor outperformed Kerry was in conservative North Florida, which is the most "Southern" part of the state and which is historically Democrat but not anymore in presidential races. Martinez was unable to get as many conservative Democrats to vote for him as President Bush did---then again, Martinez was not the Commander-in-Chief leading the War on Terror.
As I wrote before, I don't think we can glean much information regarding how "Old Florida" voted based on county results, since "Old Florida" voters could be living next door to recent retirees from Pennsylvania and wealthy Cuban businessmen. But the "Old Florida" theory certainly helps to explain how Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham were able to win so many statewide elections in the face of very strong pro-GOP tides.
I essentially agree. I still think Galligher would be a stronger candidate, as would a couple of others, but Harris is by no means dead in the water, and may well win.
I essentially agree. I still think Galligher would be a stronger candidate, as would a couple of others, but Harris is by no means dead in the water, and may well win.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.