RINO-Turned-'Rat May Run Against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) In 2006

www.phillyburbs.com ^ | July 21, 2005 | Brian Scheid

[Clintonfatigued]

Andrew L. Warren, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation district administrator and former longtime Republican Bucks County commissioner who recently switched to the Democratic Party, said he's considering a run for Republican Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick's 8th District seat in 2006.

[Clintonfatigued]

Warren served as Bucks County Commissioner for over 15 years until recently. In Bucks County, Commissioners are elected county-wide, not by district. And the 8th. District consists of Bucks County.

[Dan from Michigan]

This could be trouble with the 15 year history. How popular is he among dems. Could he win the primary?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Warren served as Bucks County Commissioner for over 15 years until recently. In Bucks County, Commissioners are elected county-wide, not by district."

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I believe the same thing holds true for Congressman Fitzpatrick, also a former Bucks County Commissioner.


"And the 8th. District consists of Bucks County."

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Bucks County, plus the most Republican part of NE Philly, plus a GOP-leaning part of Montgomery County. But you're right, I think a bit over 90% of the district's population lives in Bucks.

Bush got 48% in the 8th in 2004, the same as in the state as a whole. Fitzpatrick basically has to hold the Bush vote and get an extra 2% from among Kerry voters (i.e., get 4% of Kerry voters to vote for him) in order to win reelection. With Fitzpatrick's home base in heavily Democrat Lower Bucks, he should be able to get much more than the requisite amount of Kerry votes. The trick will be to hold the RINOs who voted for Bush in 2004 but may be tempted to switch to a RINO-turned-RAT in the general.

[zbigreddogz]

So how long has that guy been in there?

If he's been in long enough, I wouldn't worry about it too much. If this is his first or second term, that's another story. It would also be another story if Bush only got 42% of the vote in his district.

But at 48% Bush, any Incumbent that's been around a while should be pretty solid.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Fitzpatrick is a freshman. He was selected to replace RINO Jim Greenwood when Greenwood retired after the filing period had concluded, and he comfortably defeated the Democrat candidate who had run as a sacrificial lamb against Greenwood (and who refused to step aside when Greenwood retired).

Fitzpatrick's reelection isn't a slam-dunk, but I think he'll be okay, and I think his reelection will not be as close as Santorum's (and this is coming from someone who thinks that Santorum will win with 52%).

[Tribune7]

LOLOLOLOL

[Temple Owl]

Taint funny Magee! The guy is a complete moron. But I guess he isn't much worse the the greedy pigs now feeding at the trough.

[Tribune7]

PennDOT boy wants to go to D.C. ping.

[Clintonfatigued]

There's another group to worry about, RINO's in northern Bucks County who heavily supported Arlen Specter in 2004 but also supported Ed Rendell in 2002. Mike Fitzpatrick swept those voters because he faced a third-tier opponent last year, but Andrew Warren has great potential appeal to them.

Let's hope that Warren doesn't make the race.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"There's another group to worry about, RINO's in northern Bucks County who heavily supported Arlen Specter in 2004 but also supported Ed Rendell in 2002."

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Yeah, I know about those voters. They can be divided into Bush-voting RINOs and Kerry-voting RINOs. Fitzpatrick probably won't be able to get many of the Kerry voters running against a first-tier opponent, but the RINOs who voted for Bush in spite of their social liberalism will probably stick with Fitzpatrick as well (it's not as if Fitzpatrick is quite as conservative as Bush). If Fitzpatrick can hold the Bush-voting RINOs from Upper Bucks, I'm sure he will get more than enough votes from Kerry-voting blue-collar Democrats from Lower Bucks to win reelection.

[Kuksool]

The RATS are going all out to defeat Republicans in PA. I think our incumbents will survive reelection. The Philly RINO Machine may not like President Bush, but they do help out their own. Last year, although Kerry won PA, the GOP did win the Attorney General race as well as the open House seats of the PA-15 and PA-08. If the RINO Machine worked as hard for President Bush as they did for own people, then perhaps Bush could have won PA.