It's Over for Kerry in Louisiana; Are Other State Democrat Hopefuls Next?

PoliticsLA.com ^ | July 28, 2004 | Prof. Jeff Sadow

[AuH2ORepublican]

It's Over for Kerry in Louisiana; Are Other State Democrat Hopefuls Next?

PoliticsLA.com Commentary By Prof. Jeff Sadow July 28, 2004

It's now officially over in Louisiana but it was really over five months ago: President George W. Bush was assured of carrying the state as soon as Sen. John Kerry emerged as the presumptive Democrat nominee. Officially over because Democrats have pulled any organized ad campaign for Kerry and even Republicans have dispatched party workers from Louisiana to hotter campaign spots.

A recent poll confirmed this, with Bush having an almost insurmountable lead in the state. One must wonder what Democrat strategists were thinking as Bush never showed signs of vulnerability here and raises questions about how effective a campaign Kerry's staff runs.

Because for Kerry to win in November, pretty much everything must break right for him (or, perhaps another way of putting that is, break wrong for Bush). If preliminary numbers hold, as is predicted, this will be the best year of growth in the economy in two decades. Even if the media underreports this news (as a recent study shows), it still will help Bush and would tip the balance in Bush's favor in a close contest.

Other good omens for Bush include the fact that redistricting added electoral votes mostly to states that support him well, for a projected advantage of 7 more of these votes, and that on the other issue (besides the economy) polls show most important to voters, handling of terrorism, far more voters see him as more capable than Kerry. About the only empirical evidence in Kerry's favor is Bush's approval ratings have hovered recently in the 45-50 percent range, but they must dip to around 40 percent for Kerry to be able to win. Even an incumbent challenger's advantage among undecided voters (they tend to break against the incumbent) is reduced this year given the higher levels of voters who already have made up their minds.

In this environment, while a Kerry landslide is next to impossible, there's an increasing likelihood that Bush may score one. Kerry's writing off the state should minimally affect candidacies of lower-level national Democrats since most have tried to keep their distance from his candidacy. But what would the implications be for Louisiana candidates with a big Bush win nationwide?

This scenario could ensure that, by 2005, the only nationally-elected officials would come from New Orleans, Rep. Bill Jefferson and Sen. Mary Landrieu. The Democrat base will come out to support Kerry even if Bush is expected to do well in the state, but as the president's margin nationwide increases, more of them will stay home out of discouragement. The blanket primary and general (runoff) election date after the national date makes Democrats more competitive here than any in other state in the South, but it can't work miracles.

As of today, count Republicans Bobby Jindal, Jim McCrery, and Richard Baker as sure winners, along with Democrat Jefferson in the House. Republican Billy Tauzin III also is looking good and in a Bush landslide environment might well win without a runoff, but regardless is a likely winner. For this level, the place Democrats would be hurt most is where they currently hold seats, the Fifth (open) and Seventh (held by Rep. Rodney Alexander).

Polls currently place two Democrats slightly ahead in the Seventh. But if the Democrat base turns out in reduced numbers that increases the chances that state Sen. Don Cravins will make the runoff since more liberal black voters, especially goaded by political organizations, would be less likely to slough off. This would open the trap door for state Sen. Willie Mount to fall through and put either Charles Boustany or David Thibodeaux up against Cravins - and whoever runs against him will win in December.

Alexander has the incumbency advantage but also one of the most cross-wise districts in the entire country - the winning Democrat whose own vote was farthest behind his district's vote for Bush. Against former legislator Republican Jock Scott, he has a chance to retain this district only if Kerry stays competitive nationwide.

Perhaps most affected by a Kerry meltdown would be the Senate seat. Rep. David Vitter is in the runoff and, as of now, if there is one against either Rep. Chris John or state Treasurer John Kennedy, separated from other national trends by the late election date, it'll be close. But if enough discouraged Democrats stay home, Vitter can win it outright in November or, more remotely, state Rep. Arthur Morrell could sneak into the runoff for the same reasons Cravins would make it in the Seventh. Vitter would win that matchup handily.

So even if the presidential race seems over here, how it plays out nationwide may have a profound impact on other national elections in Louisiana.

[AuH2ORepublican]

So is Jock Scott a RINO or is he simply a conservative who was a Democrat back in the old days because that was the way to succeed in Louisiana politics (not to mention that the Democrats weren't as liberal back then)? I'm not too worried about him having organized for Carter in 1976, since most white Southerners were for the Georgia governor back then; Carter actually won every Southern state except for Virginia and Oklahoma.

[Theodore R.]

I don't know if Jock Scott is "RINO" or not, but his father was a very liberal Republican by LA standards.

[MCFujiTanker]

Yeah, I'm stationed in Guam and our cable providor is running ads that are a week old here. It was really funny when they had the CA Governor's race. I was watching the History Channel (I think they tape it in CA), and DAVIS' ads were coming on a week after the knucklehead lost! Semper Fidelis. P.S. I vote in VA absentee, GU has no electoral votes.

[tioga]

A kerry ad on FOXNews is kinda like him advertising here on FR. Sounds a little desperate. I hope I see one up here in NY, I could use a laugh today.