Nearly half undecided in 7th District House race (MI)

Former state Sen. John J.H. Schwarz of Battle Creek would be an instant front-runner in the race to be Jackson's next representative in Congress, according to a poll released Wednesday.

State Rep. Clark Bisbee of Jackson leads five Republican candidates with 17 percent support, but the race would change significantly if Schwarz becomes a candidate, the poll found.

Schwarz, who ran for the seat and lost to incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Smith in 1992, has not said whether he will run in 2004. Smith is not seeking re-election, opening a hotly contested primary on the Republican side.

The poll was conducted by the Lansing-based EPIC/MRA between Nov. 10-13. It questioned 400 previous Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Choosing among the five announced candidates, the poll found 40 percent of voters remain undecided.

Bisbee led with 17 percent, followed by former state Rep. Tim Walberg of Tipton (13 percent), former state Rep. Paul DeWeese of Eaton Rapids (11 percent), state Rep. Gene DeRossett of Manchester (10 percent) and Smith's son, attorney Brad Smith (9 percent).

With Schwarz in the race, the undecided vote would drop to 35 percent, the poll found.

Schwarz would lead with 19 percent, followed by Bisbee (15 percent), Walberg (10 percent), DeRossett (8 percent), DeWeese (7 percent) and Smith (6 percent).

Former Concord school Superintendent Al Widner is the only Democrat to enter the race so far. The poll focused only on Republican candidates.

The 7th District includes parts of Lenawee, Hillsdale, Jackson, Washtenaw, Eaton, Branch and Calhoun counties.

Earlier thread

The good news is that Schwarz so far has not decided to run. Schwarz is an uberRINO. He was McCain's campaign manager in Michigan. He's extremely anti-gun and extremely pro-abort. He called those that support CCW 'bubbas that strap on a 9mm' and said there is no individual right to keep and bear arms(Even Granholm said there was). He also backed tax increases to get out of a defecit. He's WORSE than both Schauer(whose terrible) and Spade, the two dems that could pose a threat. If I lived in that district, I would not vote for Schwarz, period, even with the balance of power in the house close and the committee votes. I would be voting third party or leaving it blank. A lot of people would refuse to vote for Schwarz and will switch to a Spade(a C), or even Schauer(D- over an F-) based on gun issues. I don't know if Spade's pro-life or not, I think Schauer is NOT.

Schwarz is a doctor from Battle Creek and his state senate district also covered Eaton County. He also recently ran against Posthumus for governor and got whopped by 40-50 pts in the primary. That's the likely advantage he has.

By the numbers

Eaton County(all) - 49272 voters - Bush won by 1592, 50%(Granholm won it)
Jackson County(all) - 61946 - Bush won by 3906 - 52%
Calhoun County - 55080(approx) - Gore won by 1447 - 50%(Two GOP townships in another district)
Branch County - 15783 - Bush won by 2052 - 55%
Hillsdale County - 17473 - Bush won by 3988 - 60%
Lenawaee County - 40093 - Bush by 2316(dem state rep) - 52%
Washtenaw County(approx) - 42548 - Bush by 2214 - 51% (Most bad areas in Dingell's district)

Areas Gore won(Bush won all the rest)
Eaton:
Lansing(part) by 1004 - 78%
Eaton Rapids by 326 - 50%

Jackson:
Jackson City by 2172 - 58%
Leoni Township by 229 - 51%

Calhoun:
Albion by 1238 - 70%
Battle Creek by 1718 - 53%
Bedford Township by 328 - 53%
Springfield by 280 - 57%

Lenawee:
Adrian City by 821 - 54%
Clinton Township by 25 - 49%

Washtenaw:
Scio Township (part?) by 870 - 53%
Sylvan Township by 25 - 48%

Bush won the rest.

The Demo.. State Sen. Mark Schauer, is a pretty slick customer and will be a strong opponent. (even if he hasn't passed any bills while in the House he's been showing up at funerals for years, and now that he's shaved his mustasche, he looks pretty).

Harkening back to when Nick Smith first won in '92, it was Smith as the primary victor over John Schwartz (the RTL vote and outside Calhoun County vote made Smith the victor).

Then, if I recall correctly, against a strong Calhoun County Democrat state representative, he took the district.

GOP could repeat the process in 2004 (especially if there is a good Bush tide at the top of the ticket). But then again, in '92 there was a strong major "anti-Schwatrz" in the GOP primary...Among the multiples I see running now, I'm not overly impressed.

Too bad there isn't an articulate, good looking, Hillsdale College professor, with a sterling resume and lots of good ideas waiting in the wings.

There is one key element that everyone is skipping over in this race (some media has pointed it out) None of these candidates have been able to raise any money except DeRossett.

He is known in GOP circles in Lansing as a "top fundraiser" and raised $200K in his last state House race (which is unheard of) and already has $300K in the bank for the the congressional race. The nearest competitor is Bisbee who has $97K. Everone else is distant in comparison.

The crown jewel in this race, if por-choice Schwarz gets in, is going to be the Right to Life endorsement. NRA & the MI Chamber often base there endorsement on the RTL and RTL endorses based on "electablity". Electability = being able to get on TV & Radio.

Look for a surge in the polls for DeRossett as soon as he starts spending his money in the spring.

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