"Swooshing?" Is this a new technical term? Nike endorsement?
The hurricane itself is no joke, though; I highly recommend that those in the projected path, and also in the general area, either evacuate NOW to well-inland high ground locations, or be prepared to ride out the storm in place. Once people start to leave the coastline in droves, the roads and highways will be clogged and travel will be EXTREMELY slow. Flooding/storm surge approaching while you are cooped up in a car on a lowland road would be bad news.
Don't expect the storm to fizzle (wishful thinking); as it crosses the Gulf Stream it might maintain or even strengthen a bit. Though storms like this are unpredictable, this one seems poised to strike somewhere between South Carolina and New Jersey, with most likelihood being just southwest of Chesapeake Bay. Don't rely on that Bay Tunnel for escape Wednesday!
I don't want to read your name on the list of fatalities. Stay safe, stay forewarned, evacuate before you are trapped.
The following is in all caps because it's posted at NWS that way.
000 WTNT33 KNHC 160232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 15 2003
...HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 710 MILES...1140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 480 MILES...770 KN...EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...26.1 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Please note the bolded text (mine) in the forecast above. A hurricane is not a point source. This thing is actually more like a hurricane 200 miles wide, wrapped in a tropical storm 400 miles wide. Conditions for the entire (already rain-soaked) Eastern Seaboard will be horrible at the very least.
| A weakened Isabel is downgraded 9/15/2003 7:29 P.M. Tom Moore, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel |
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| Isabel has weakened, but remains a major (category 3) hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm is being negatively infulenced by a trough of low pressure to its northwest. Outflow inhibition and dry air intrusion has weakened the storm, especially on the western side. The storm may strengthen a bit over the next day or so as the trough to the northwest lifts out and the storm heads for the warm Gulf Stream waters. Landfall should occur by Thursday. The exact spot of landfall may be difficult to predict due to the extreme angle at which the storm could be approaching the coast, especially if it stays out to sea north of Cape Hatteras. A very tiny change in the direction of movement could shift its landfall by a hundred miles or more. Areas from the Middle Atlantic Coast to North Carolina should be on alert, however. Although Isabel is not a particularly large hurricane, its wind field will expand dramatically as it nears the U. S. and encounters a building high pressure area over the Northeast. Thus, even though the strongest winds should occur someplace along the Mid-Atlantic coast (wherever Isabel comes ashore), gales eventually could pound beaches as far north as Maine. In the meantime, the first effects will be building surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard. No high surf warnings have yet been issued, but that may change soon. Large swells and dangerous surf are currrently battering portions of the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. |
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