Hogue's Blog Sites Bustamante Lead!

Hogue and KTKZ Radio ^ | August 15, 2005 | Eric Hogue

[Eric Hogue 1380 KTKZ]

Breaking: Cruz Bustamante leads the latest Field Poll, reported by Eric Hogue of KTKZ and confirmed by two sources tonight.

[goldstategop]

If the electorate is heavily Republican my guess is Tom McClintock would win. But your guess is as good as mine. We don't yet which side will turn out its voters more.

[IpaqMan]

I do not think it is reasonable to show growth or decline in polling numbers by comparing two different surveys.

It was not mentioned whether this poll is based upon registered voters or likely voters.

[IpaqMan]

Sorry, by two different surveys, I mean surveys from different polling organizations.

[Simmy2.5]

I'm taking a wait and see on this one. As someone pointed out, if this Field Poll had most of its polling done in say, San Francisco that is the ONLY places where Davis is leading...this poll would be very misleading.

But if anything, it goes to show people that to win the election, it will take more then a few one-liners and a bunch of top advisors to get someone elected. I'm confident that Arnold WILL hammer down on more concrete plans...but in the meantime...it won't help him get elected.

[Pubbie]

Ah - but even with all the voter fraud from illegals, the hispanic vote is usually only 16% of the electorate during elections, while whites make up at least 70% of the votes.

Because this is a special election, and the Dems don't know what their strategy is, I'm sure Latino's will make up an even smaller % of the people who show up to vote.

[RightWingMama]

When Arnold start stating his platform his numbers will go up. (unless, of course, he wants to raise property taxes)
BTW, I'm one of the original signers of the recall petition.

[ambrose]

Everyone needs to remember that Field is a notoriously Dem-weighted poll.

Everyone was singing the praises of the Field Poll when it showed Gumby Davis with a 22% approval rating. But now it is "Dem-weighted" when it shows Arnie's lead collapsing.

[TheDon]

That's Gov. Arnold to you bub! :)

[kingu]

I wish Simon would explain exactly why he's in this election.

[ElkGroveDan]

Everyone was singing the praises of the Field Poll when it showed Gumby Davis with a 22% approval rating. But now it is "Dem-weighted" when it shows Arnie's lead collapsing.

I was never singing the praises of Field. And all your line of reasoning means is that Davis is not popular among Dems.

[Reagan Disciple]

So far, with his Buffet announcement, maybe Rob Lowe, the pollster from NY, if I lived in CA and stuck to my guns he would never get my vote. But living in NY I know that sometimes sticking to my guns actually hurts me (ie Pataki - he's Arnold-lite but if I backed the losing Conservative candidate I would have had Cuomo for the foreseeable future.)

What we conservatives sometimes miss is that on the coasts we are the minority and our vision of pro-life, less-gov't, lower taxes, no welfare, etc. doesn't wash with the bleeding hearts and the tree huggers. Working in NYC I can tell you that just by overhearing conversations most liberals and apathetics have no clue what is going on and vote solely on name recognition (HillBilly) or religious/racial preference (Schumer, Ackerman, Rangel come to mind).

So when a guy like Arnold comes along we instinctively reject him because he's not with us on the core platform issues even though he has a shot at winning. So we'll (not me of course since I don't live there) back a Simon or McClintock on principles with the hope that our vision will see through. And, inevitably, we get crushed in the general elections after all the buses go home and the actors/directors/musicians do the talk show circuits.

Again, so far I am unimpressed with Arnold's team selections and for what I know of his stance on issues, he's not my kind of guy. But he can get CA to be a playable state for the national party and if he makes even a little headway on the fiscal front, then maybe he can encourage the wackos out there to oust Boxer and some of her ilk nest year.

Like I said, the masses are generally stupid and gravitate to fame. I would much rather have McClintock in Boxer's seat in the Senate than in the CA State house. He can help us more there than running a futile campaign against Arnold.

[The Old Hoosier]

when a guy like Arnold comes along we instinctively reject him because he's not with us on the core platform issues

Arnold isn't bad just on "core platform issues." He's bad on ALL ISSUES. Now he has embraced Buffet's call for higher taxes.

What is it going to take for people to drop this loser and back a winner?

[Quix]

Very astute observation.

I think McClintock in Boxer's seat in Congress would be MUCH more powerful for the good of the country than even if he won California.

AND ENORMOUSLY MORE PRODUCTIVE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE CAUSE THAN A SILLY FUTILE PISSING CONTEST WITH ARNOLD TO CRUZ'S benefit.

[Reagan Disciple]

I can't say that it is a shock that Arnold would not rule out raising taxes - he's not a conservative - but I'll take the I told you so anyway.

The California GOP is already messed up by the proof that they can't get elected statewide in any meaningful numbers - just like the NY GOP.

Again, I am not an Arnold backer based on his platform or his core beliefs. I am an Arnold backer if his popularity translates into ridding us of Boxer in the Senate. Again, you will get worse if Cruz gets into office for sure since he is the Latino form of Davis.

BTW - since McClintock and Simon have no chance against Cruz - even if they got a majority of the GOP backing - you will definitely get your taxes raised if Cruz wins. Either way, CA is basically screwed on that point.

[The Old Hoosier]

I don't think Arnold has any chance of defeating Cruz--the movie star excitement is wearing out, and he has fallen behind in the polls. Not only is he a loser politically despite high name recognition, but he's also going to raise taxes.

Someone with no baggage and a chance to raise his profile, like McClintock, could come from behind and win like Simon did in 2002, provided there's a heavy GOP turnout October 7.

[Reagan Disciple]

That's a big if for GOP turnout in a blue, baby-killer state.

Besides, with Arnold on the ballot McClintock doesn't have a chance. Both he and Simon will be fighting for voters like you and with the names that Arnold is putting together (all terrible for sure but high recognition), he's not dropping out. Also, Arnold can actually take away liberals from Cruz if they hate Davis enough. Kind of like a CA version of Perot.

Again I can understand your desire to stand with McClintock, I would as well as he stands for what we stand for across the board. I would take him over Arnold any day in a normal, general election primary. But you have to know he and Simon staying in this race almost assures Cruz of the spot.

You are out numbered 2 to 1 by the pinkos, just as I am out numbered 3 to 2 here in NY. Sometimes you need to peel off some of the enemy so you can win the war and not just the battle.

[The Old Hoosier]

Well, Simon has to get out. But the fact is, anyone who has chosen a conservative over Arnold at this point will not go to Arnold. And some of Arnold's support, as it drops in the coming weeks from its current 22%, will go to the conservatives.

If Simon announces that he's out, McClintock will probably outpoll Arnold on Oct. 7. They might both outpoll Cruz.

[Reagan Disciple]

I'll defer to you since you live there. But if by Labor Day your boy is still buried under 10%, then he becomes a liability.

Please keep me informed as the East Coast posse is very interested in the happenings with the G's from the West Side.

[The Old Hoosier]

I'm not in Calif. You have Freepmail.