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000
WTNT44 KNHC 091433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

Claudette has weakened some this morning. Southwesterly vertical shear has exposed the center intermittently on the edge of the convection, and a reconnaissance aircraft indicates a central pressure of 1004 millibars along with flight-level winds of 59 knots. Based on this, the maximum winds are reduced to 55 knots, and this may be a little generous.

The initial motion is 275/21. There is little change in the synoptic pattern and the forecast philosophy from the previous package. Claudette remains south of a deep layer subtropical ridge, whose western end is forecast to weaken after 36 hours as a deep-layer trough develops over the eastern United States. Claudette will likely be too far south and west to recurve ahead of the trough, so the most likely response of the storm is a slow motion while over the Gulf of Mexico. The track forecast calls for a gradually decelerating west-northwestward motion through 36-48 hours as Claudette approaches the western end of the ridge, followed by a slower northwestward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. This track forecast is along the southern edge of the dynamical models. It should be noted that Beta and Advection Model Shallow and National Hurricane Center 98 are south of the current forecast, but could verify if Claudette weakens further.

Aircraft data shows that the Claudette vortex is rather small, so there is a distinct possibility that if the shear persists the system could weaken to an easterly wave. Assuming that does not happen, large-scale models forecast the upper-level low west of Claudette to weaken after 12-24 hours and the shear to decrease. The low appears stronger on water vapor imagery than on any of the model forecasts for 12Z, so it will likely hang on longer than the models currently forecast. Based on this, the intensity forecast will call for Claudette to change little for the next 24 hours in a marginal-at-best environment, followed by strengthening as the cyclone approaches Yucatan. By the time Claudette reaches the Gulf of Mexico, a large-scale upper-level anticyclone should be in place to provide a favorable environment.

Forecaster Beven

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.5N 77.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.3N 80.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 83.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.1N 86.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 20.5N 89.0W 40 KT, INLAND
72HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 91.5W 45 KT, OVER WATER
96HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 93.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 94.0W 60 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

...Claudette weakens slightly...

At 11 AM EDT, 1500 UTC, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

At 11 AM EDT, 1500Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.5 degrees north, longitude degrees 77.6 west, or about 175 miles, 280 kilometers, south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 24 miles per hour, 39 kilometers per hour. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 miles per hour, 100 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Upper level winds are not currently favorable for development, and little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 kilometers mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1004 millibars, 29.65 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are expected along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with Claudette. Satellite imagery indicates that rain bands should be spreading over Jamaica in the next few hours.

Repeating the 11 AM EDT position: 15.5 °N, 77.6 °W. Movement toward, west near 24 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 65 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

...CLAUDETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CLAUDETTE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A U.S. AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CLAUDETTE'S
PATH. EARLY THIS MORNING...HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE