Posted on 03/28/2003 12:25:57 PM PST by redangus
I fully expect to get flamed big time for this post, but that’s okay. My point is to get people to think about “what ifs”. While I have no doubt that in a conventional war we would annihilate the Iraqi army in short order. I also fully believe that when all is said and done we will win and Saddam will be consigned to the dust heap of history. However we should all remember that Saddam does not have to win the military war to win. He only needs to win the political war. He is a survivor. Remaining in power, even if in control of much smaller country is a personal victory for him So here is my scenario as how Saddam wins. I look forward to a lot of well thought out responses.
First the Republican Guard never comes out in the open for a Kursk or El Alamien type battle. Saddam understanding that we are fighting a politically correct war, one in which we do everything possible to avoid civilian casualties, keeps all is elite troops in urban areas where we are unlikely and unwilling to attack. This means our superior mechanized forces are left stalled 40-50 miles outside of Baghdad. With no real targets to go after our vaunted air superiority becomes a non-factor.
Our supply lines are stretched out over 400+ miles. Saddam takes advantage of this by using his suicide Feyedeen, Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Queda forces to attack and disrupt much needed supplies. Don’t think Patton, think Lawrence of Arabia. They also, when possible take shots at tanks and APCs with Russian supplied rockets. They don’t do a lot of damage, but they do some and become a major harassment factor. On a good day they may even bring down a helicopter. Sure we kill them when we find them, but there are always many more willing to take their place.
The war does not end quickly, but drags on into the summer months. Using the Iraqi version of the Russian winter, Saddam plans on the 100-degree heat and sandstorms to take their toll on equipment, men and morale. Our troops start to become discouraged by the lack of movement and fighting as they sit in their vehicles stuck in the desert. Constant nighttime harassment by irregular forces mean the troops are getting 1-2 hours of sleep a night, further adding to their stress.
Saddam sends a few of his suicide forces to blow them selves up at the humanitarian relief sites causing mayhem, disrupting aid and creating a crisis in southern Iraq. He also sends some additional suicide bombers into Kuwait to disrupt supply lines at their marshalling point.
As summer turns to autumn the worldwide protests increase. American support for the war starts to wane after 6 months of reporting by CNN, ABC, and Reuters etal. Body bags are now showing up in small towns around America. Not a lot, but enough to bring the war home. Karl Rove starts to look at the political damage wrought by a war we don’t seem willing or able to win and an economy that is still in the doldrums. Saving the President’s political career becomes more important than victory in Iraq.
Saddam seeing an opening has his friends in France and Germany bring a resolution before the U.N. for a cease-fire and end to the hostilities. Saddam is willing to give the U.N. unfettered access to his country to look for WMD. He is also willing to allow the formation of an elected Iraqi parliament to give the people a voice in their government. In return the Coalition troops must leave the country and the no-fly zones must be lifted along with the embargo. The President looking toward the up-coming elections accepts the deal by saying that all our goals have been achieved by the new U.N. resolution. Our troops come home. The Kuwaitis seeing the handwriting on the walls throw us out, as do the Saudis. Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas embolden by their belief that they were a large part of the Iraqi victory step up their attacks on Israel. Countries around the world start to look at the U.S. the same way they did after Vietnam, as a friend that can’t be trusted to stay the course. Many fence sitters become openly hostile while others turn to “neutrality”. France and Germany become world leaders because of their brokering of the peace and take over the rebuilding of Iraq making lots of money in the process. Saddam stays in power, wins the political war and becomes the new Sulieman the Magnificent in the eyes of the Arab street. Iraq and Baghdad becomes the new center of the Arab world, and a home and supplier of all sorts of terrorist organizations.
Is this going to happen, hopefully not? However, if we continue to fight a politically correct war, underestimating our enemy and not allowing our troops to do what is necessary to win, it could. If there is one lesson that we should have learned from Vietnam it is this, never go to war unless you are willing to do everything and I mean everything needed to win total victory. You can’t afford to worry about winning the hearts and minds of the people during the execution of the war. There is plenty of time to do that after hostilities have ended. Never go to war if you are afraid of how public opinion will view your strategies. You either play to win or you don’t enter the game.
Flame away!
. However we should all remember that Saddam does not have to win the military war to win. He only needs to win the political warIncorrect premise.
2) He has already won more in the court of public opinion than many leaders have won on the battle field.
Yep, and the winner is not the guy that gets killed.
"keeps all is elite troops in urban areas…"
They'd have to get there first, they're not there now, so "keeps" is incorrect.
400+ supply lines
They're not that long, they're as long as they were in DS 1, they are the distance from Kuwait to Baghdad. Without changing geography, that's how long they have to be. We are re-supplying our front troups sufficiently, the attacks on the lines are minor and not stopping the flow of supplies.
You are correct on one point: Saddam thinks he can win if we lose our will, which is helped by handwringing and doomsday second-guessing our fine leaders.
We shouldn't engage in this for this reason.
To the best of my knowledge, it doesn't.
Saddam's regime will fall faster than the Taliban and the "Arab Street" already hates us and all we stand for.
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