Posted on 12/17/2002 7:32:02 AM PST by HairOfTheDog
Come on! Come in! -if you would like to have some seedcakes and a pint and relax a while. (If it is a special occasion, we still have a few bottles of the old wineyards left!)
Our first thread ( New Zealander builds Hobbit hole ) reached 4,100 posts, and we thought that was big. Our second thread (The New Hobbit Hole ) held us for over 48,000 posts, and we loved it dearly. We talked about moving to a new thread for the last 38,000 posts, but we are really slow to muster! Finally, the time has come. Tomorrow (at 12:01 am, to be precise!) The Two Towers comes out, and we start a new chapter.
My brother wants to borrow my Kildare VSB D. He doesn't care for typical Susatos, but tried that one last night and loved it! He ended up spending the night at my place last night...he has to walk to work as his vision means he can't get a driver's license, and considering how cold it is, I told him if he stayed over I'd drive him there. So we did some playing last night.
Also watched an episode of X-Files that turned out to have Wormtongue (Brad Dourif) as a guest star...
Used to watch that show every week when I was in the military...
There were several recurring themes: limited ability on the terrorists’ part to effectively deliver any agent and how the media has whipped up peoples’ anxiety and blown things out of proportion. (big surprise, huh.)
It is difficult to effectively deliver a chemical agent with maximum effectiveness. “Persistance” is a term used quite a bit. If the aerosol droplets are too large, they won’t remain suspended in the air where they are most effective for very long. If the droplets are too small, the cloud will disperse too quickly. Some agents are sensitive to temperature and UV can degrade at various rates. The team stressed that while terrorist groups may have chemical weapons, they also possess crude delivery systems. Like the Tokyo subway incident, any attack would likely scare more people than it actually hurts.
They spoke some about the hijacked cropduster scenario and explained that chemical agents require different pressures and nozzles than cropdusters are usually equipped with. Use of these vehicles would produce droplets too large to stay suspended in the air, so the effect would be over a very limited geographical area.
The team also explained that military-grade agents- the ones with most favorable “persistence”- are difficult to come by, but the more common, industrial chemicals, chlorine, sulfuric acid, et. al, could be more easily acquired, although they aren’t as persistent.
Regarding the duct (duck!) tape and plastic measure, it is of limited utitlity. In the case you are at “ground zero” and your house is enveloped in a high-concentration droplet cloud, you are basically SOL (to quote them). The plastic is not fool-proof. Some agents can diffuse through the plastic and other porous substances..such as drywall. And there will always be leakage. Even if help arrives, they’ll be hard pressed to get you out of your safe room without exposure.
But, that being said the plastic procedure is of use when your home is located some distance from the event and will be exposed to a “transient” cloud. As the wind picks up the stuff and disperses it, low concentrations could pass through your area. It would be dangerous to be out in the open, but a semi-sealed environment is quite adequate until the threat passes by or degrades.
A couple days ago, Alkhin posted a link to his blog which contained a bit written by someone criticizing the plastic and tape thing. It said that the plastic would raise humidity and temperature and aggravate the effect of any chemical. The panel agreed that this is the case, but if you’re close enough to the attack to have leakage on that scale it is a moot point.
The piece suggested an alternative to plastic and tape: crumbling charcoal and making home-made charcoal filters. The panel was intrigued as activated charcoal is a component in gas masks and MOPP gear. The main difference between barbeque charcoal and activated charcoal is that activated charcoal has been processed so that it has tiny holes in it- giving it more surface area to react with chemicals- and also adding a catalyst to it.
Crumbling charcoal would give it more surface area, they agreed, but the process of making “ropes” out of it and packing it into window frames would defeat the purpose. They said, “A fine powder when rolled up and compacted could be just as impermeable as the plastic sheet.” So in theory, it is a good idea, but in practical application they suggest sticking with the sheeting.
The team emphasized that a chemical or radiological attack is more likely than a biological one. Biological agents have similar limitations in terms of requiring more sophisticated delivery systems than the terrorists have.
Like chemical agents, most biological agents do not survive well exposed to oxygen and UV light. Anthrax is an exception as it forms resilient spores, but it is difficult to put Anthrax into millions of lungs. We can cure or vaccinate against the diseases that are the easiest to manufacture and release, for instance bubonic plague, anthrax, small pox. Even if a terrorist infected himself and tried to infect the populace, the disease would not spread like the media and movies make out. Effective delivery is the stumbling block for the islamists and their only hope is to scare more people than they hurt.
Contrary to the movies, there is no briefcase-sized nuke. Foot-locker sized, perhaps but there will never be an islamist with a nuke in his backpack strolling into a mall and detonating it. True nuclear weapons are extremely difficult and expensive to manufacture and maintain. The key stumbling block is the acquisition of weapons-grade fissionable material.
A better bet is stolen medical-grade radioactive material or waste. It won’t produce a mushroom cloud or a heat front that burns everything for tens of miles. Wrapped around a conventional weapon it will sprinkle low-grade radiation over a couple blocks and scare more people than it hurts. Hospitals select radioactive materials with short half-lives that can be endured by the body for short periods of time and then flushed out. What you inject for a bone scan is what would be in the air. The NBC team expects a car bomb or truck bomb that would affect a couple city blocks. The radiation would affect a couple more. The bomb would kill more people than the radiation would.
Anyhoo, while any of these things coupled with sophisticated enough technology could possibly kill a lot of people, the terrorists simply do not have the technological ability to do it. They will have to go after a symbolic target or a crowded place instead to maximize "terror". It is the only true weapon they have. Folks in rural areas, smaller cities, or places upwind of a major metropolis have nothing to worry about. Face it, even in a big city if an event affects only a couple of blocks, odds are you won’t be involved.
The idea is to scare people. The panel suggested the media by releasing hype and half-truths is the worst offender.
Why? What's today?
Breakfast is heart shaped pancakes with strawberry syrup, several platters of nice, crispy bacon and sausage patties. I've baked some heart shaped buttermilk biscuits as well. Coffee is ready to serve and there are plenty of different kinds of juices (2J, have some orange juice). ENJOY!
MBY - excellent analysis on Boromir! I believe you are spot on with his looking after Merry and Pippin as his "sons". Despite his selling out to the power of the One Ring, Boromir had an air of nobility around him that manifested itself when the chips were down. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
CindyDawg - welcome! welcome! Have some breakfast and make yourself comfortable. We're quite happy when visitors come to call. :)
Seamus - I do have the FoTR game but I have a confession to make. I stink at it! LOL! I haven't been able to get Frodo past the Black Rider to get to Maggot's farm yet. I get caught every single stinking time. Grrrrr! I always jump when I see the Rider and get nervous and thus, lose my ability to think on my feet. I'll need you tips more than you'll every need mine! *grin*
2J - I hope you get to feeling better soon, sis. That cold is everywhere, along with the dreaded stomach flu. Everyone is my house still has a nagging cough and bone aches from it, but the worst has passed for now. Alyson's nose is still stuffy too. :(
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