Reality based on longtime experience. Thanks for posting.
“ Reality based on longtime experience. Thanks for posting.”
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Yes, long and TYPICAL experience can lead to well founded estimates. But sometimes things become “non-typical”. An example of this would be the early estimates of how long it would take to fix all the Kuwaiti oil/natural gas wells that Saddam had blown up and set on fire. Early estimates were based upon historical performance in fixing individual oil/natural gas well blow out fires and extrapolating from there. But once HIGHEST URGENCY methods were applied the mission was accomplished far quicker that earlier estimates.