Obviously, elements in Iran think that they can close the Strait at tolerable cost to their nation, caused by American airpower, long enough to so economically and politically damage Trump and the United States that we will contrive surrender while declaring victory.
Equally clear, Donald Trump himself, despite his bluster to the contrary, is not convinced that American airpower alone can win the war in time. It is conscious as hardly any other man on earth of the worldwide economic consequences of oil price spikes. He must consider the devastating damage that can be done to soft "allied" states along the Gulf with vulnerable infrastructure including refineries and desalination plants. He knows he does not now have popular support for the war. He faces midterm elections.
But most important, despite the world's most complete intelligence apparatus, no one, including the president, knows the answer to the pivotal question because we are just now entering a new age of warfare that is as surprising as the new age of warfare that erupted in 1914.
This fog of war explains Trump's flip-flopping about bombing or negotiating. He clearly does not want to test our capacity to bomb Iran into submission.
