I’m long the Sept 130 puts, and the Dec and Jan 100 puts.
Zero faith in this play.
Baloney!
Battered?
How?
“NASA’s budget for fiscal year (FY) 2026 is $24.4 billion”
“Since its inception, the United States has spent over $1.9 trillion (in 2025 dollars) on NASA”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_NASA
As I recall, SpaceX slid a bit just because a Starship launch was delayed. Perhaps sold off by Musk haters.
“[Down] from its peak, it is”
Yoda?
That is the kiss of death.
NASA budget
• $1,881M for the Human Landing System program to develop and deploy multiple landing
systems that will transport the first woman and first person of color to the Moon to conduct
lunar science, technology demonstrations, and logistics to enable an enduring presence.
• $914M for Gateway development to support human lunar landings and surface activities
• $380M for xEVA and Human Surface Mobility Program to develop the surface suits, rovers,
and other systems for lunar exploration
• $60M for Advanced Cislunar and Surface Capabilities to expand scientific understanding and
identify technologies for lunar sustainability and future human missions to the Moon and Mars”
• Enables the Artemis goal of landing the first woman and first person of color
on the Moon’s south pole
• $2,506M for Space Launch System to focus on successful completion of
Artemis II and preparation required for Artemis III and IV, which includes the
Block 1B configuration and other upgrades
• $1,225M for the Orion program to finalize assembling and testing the Artemis
II crew vehicle and to deliver the system to Exploration Ground Systems at
Kennedy Space Center
• $794M for Exploration Ground Systems to complete preparations for Artemis
II and develop the necessary ground systems including the Mobile Launcher
2, required for assembly, test, and launch of SLS Block 1B on Artemis IV
• $1,036M to provide continuous ISS operations, support extension through 2030, and enable a
transition to commercial LEO destinations once available
• $266M to support research and technology demonstrations for long-duration human deep
space exploration sponsored by NASA Space Technology and Exploration Systems
Development Mission Directorates and the NASA Human Research Program, and basic and
Earth science research by NASA Science Mission Directorate
• Enables development and advancement of a commercial ecosystem in low-Earth orbit,
including stimulation of non-NASA demand funded by ISS and hosting Commercial LEO
Development Program-sponsored activities such as PAMs and CDISS
• Supports the ISS National Laboratory by expanding the breadth of researchers and
companies using ISS and enabling new public-private partnerships
• $1,856M for the Crew and Cargo Program to provide for a regular cadence of crew
rotations and cargo resupply missions to the ISS, contributing to the foundation of a
more affordable and sustainable future for American human spaceflight
• Includes $180M to partner with industry to develop a U.S. deorbit capability for
ISS
• $101M for Commercial Crew Program to continue NASA’s collaboration with the U.S.
commercial space industry to certify and maintain insight into the vehicles that
transport astronauts into space safely, reliably, and affordably from American soil
• $580M for Space Communications and Navigation to provide services for human exploration,
science, and crew and cargo missions
• $154M for Human Research Program for continued research to mitigate risks to astronaut
health during long-duration missions
• $104M for Launch Services to provide safe, reliable, and cost-effective launch vehicle
acquisition and advisory services for over 70 NASA spacecraft missions in various phases of
development
• $102M for Human Space Flight Operations to support readiness and crew health for all NASA
human space flight endeavors
• $59M for Communications Services Program to demonstrate commercial communication and
data relay services to support future NASA missions
• $49M for Rocket Propulsion Test to provide NASA’s rocket testing capability to meet U.S. rocket
testing requirements
• Develops, demonstrates, and transfers revolutionary, high payoff technologies that expand the commercial
space economy and transform NASA Missions
• $551M for Technology Demonstration to conduct ground-based testing and space flight technology
demonstrations such as: Solar Electric Propulsion, OSAM-1, Cryogenic Fluid Management, Fission Surface
Power, Space Nuclear Propulsion, Flight Opportunities and Small Spacecraft Technologies
• $402M for Technology Maturation to advance revolutionary disruptive exploration technologies from proof of
concept to demonstration, maturing transformational and foundational technologies such as a lunar
deployable hopper, 4G/Wireless communications, Sustainable Exploration such as ISRU, autonomous
operations, space transportation, and Entry Descent and Landing technologies
• $138M for Early-Stage Innovation and Partnerships to capitalize on innovation by sourcing ideas from a
broad, diverse base of innovators including our brightest minds in academia and transferring space
technology into the space economy
• $300M for Small Business Innovation Research and Technology Transfer to leverage the Nation’s
innovative small business community to conduct research and development in support of NASA.
• $292M supports implementation of four Earth System Observatory missions, to enhance
understanding of Earth systems and observe the effects of climate change
• Over $450M for research and applied sciences to advance our scientific understanding of
Earth as a system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve our
ability to predict climate impacts, weather, and natural hazards
• $203M supportsnear-term launch of high priority missions such as PACE, CLARREO
Pathfinder, andNISAR
• $96M to initiate the Landsat Next mission, which will ensure continuity of the longest space
based record of Earth’s land surface and will provide new capabilities for the next generation of
Landsat users
• Advance greenhouse gas measurement strategies through domestic and international
partnerships, including data integration, tool/technology development, and competed research
• $949M to continue progress on the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission to bring the first samples of Mars
material back to Earth for detailed study, including samples already collected and cached by the Mars
Perseverance rover. MSR costs may increase beyond the current outyear profile, which would require
either reduced funding for other Science activities or descoping of this mission.
• $692M for development of high priority missions including Europa Clipper, a spacecraft to Jupiter’s moon
Europa; VIPER, a lunar rover to investigate volatiles on the South Pole of the Moon; and Dragonfly a
rotorcraft lander mission to study Titan, the largest moon of Saturn
• $210M to continue development of the Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission for launch in 2028, a planetary
defense mission that will detect, track, and characterize impact hazards from asteroids and comets
• Support at least two CLPS deliveries of science instrument suites per year starting in FY 2023 and provide
innovative investigations to enhance lunar exploration and science on Artemis missions
• $248M for investments in a competitive Discovery program
• Continue support of key international partnerships: European Space Agency’s EnVision, JUICE and
ExoMars missions and the JAXA MMX mission
• $349M supports the operation of Great Observatories such as the James Webb Space
Telescope, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the Chandra X-ray Observatory
1,749.4
• $407M for continued development of the Nancy Grace Roman Space telescope for launch in
2027, a mission designed to unravel the secrets of dark energy and dark matter, search for
and image exoplanets, and explore many topics in infrared astrophysics
• $259M supports a competed Explorer program, with new selections about every three years
• Provides $39M over the next two fiscal years for responsible closeout of the SOFIA mission,
including dispositioning of assets and archiving of science data
• $191M to support a competitive Explorer program with a robust cadence of future mission
launches, including the newly selected missions MUSE and HelioSwarm
• $140M supports continued development of the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe
(IMAP) for launch in 2025, to help researchers better understand the boundary of the
heliosphere
• $27M for Space Weather investigations and research to enable the Nation to better protect
technology, national infrastructure, and astronauts from space weather, including the HERMES
instrument, a space weather payload on the Gateway
• Orbital Debris and Space Situational Awareness investments to address gaps in orbital object
detection and gaps in our scientific understanding of their interactions with the environment
• $265M for Integrated Aviation Systems to demonstrate transformational in-flight
technologies for improved efficiency and reduced noise and emissions, including the X-59
Low Boom Flight Demonstrator, X-57 Maxwell all-electric aircraft, Electrified Powertrain
Flight Demonstrations, and Sustainable Flight Demonstrator
• $295M for Advanced Air Vehicles to conduct research to meet the Nation’s growing
long-term civil aviation needs such as more efficient aircraft and propulsion technologies
to improve efficiency and reduce carbon emissions from aviation as well as to advance
long-term opportunities for supersonic and hypersonic flight
• $160M for Transformative Aero Concepts to support revolutionary aviation concepts and
university research, including research on zero-emissions aviation
• $159M for Airspace Operations and Safety to work with the Federal Aviation
Administration to modernize and transform the national air traffic management system
• $117M for Aerosciences Evaluation and Test Capabilities to support critical national
ground test infrastructure
• SSMS provides the critical business, infrastructure, and technical capabilities required to enable
mission success across all NASA programs and projects
• $910M for NASA Centers’ Engineering, Safety, and Operations
• $802M for Mission Enabling Services, which provides an enterprise approach to managing
NASA’s business operations and mission support activities
• $22M for the Office of Diversity and Equal Opportunity, which includes NASA’s diversity and equal
opportunity enterprise efforts to prioritize advancing equity, civil rights, racial justice, and equal opportunity
in accordance with NASA’s Equity and DEIA Strategic Plan
• $775M for Infrastructure and Technical Capabilities across NASA
• $682M for the Information Technology Program to modernize IT capabilities and provide strategic
cybersecurity risk management
• $200M for Agency Technical Authority to ensure safety and mission success
stock price fluctuations are one thing, but in a war with peers, satellite launch will be critical because satellites are going to be destroyed. and SpaceX is almost the single vendor for the USA
2025 Launch Statistics (Rocket Attempts)
United States: 181 launches (~3,700+ satellites)
China: 93 launches
Russia: 17 launches
Other (India, Europe/Arianespace, Japan, etc.): ~38 launches
SpaceX was 165 out of 181
Last month I bit the bullet and changed over to Starlink. It was a huge improvement to say the least. Viasat was out for duration on anything light rain and would go down sometimes several times a day. Me and a neighbor put in my Starlink and it has not failed once that I can notice. Last nights connect was 400MBPS but it usually stays over 150 consistently. Two TV's 3 cells, tablets, and it still had=s not buffered. My neighbors kid is a gamer still no issues for him and he has more on his.
When AT&T finally flips the landlines off Starlink is the only service that can reach most of the people in the US. I'm thankfull because my cell service does not work in my area none of them do without a WIFI connect.
The biggest win over for me is if my power goes out I can use my generator or 12V inverter and be back on line in minutes which cable can't. But COMCAST wanted $15K to hook me up.
That could be true, or not. Only time will tell. And that reveals a contradiction in her thinking and actions.
If she believes this, Wood should say if she intends to hold SpaceX for 15-20 years to find out, through "think and thin."
On the other hand, on Wall Street, where success and her reputation is measured by quarter, her incentive and motivation will be VERY different from her statements.
I’m in for the long haul (I hope that is pretty quick though.) LOL
Cathie Wood owns over 4 million shares of SpaceX stock. She has been buying as recently as monday.
Today SpaceX closed at $115.26 from a high of $225.64 on June 16.
It has been falling the last 5 weeks....
I sold my 149 shares at $116.00 at a loss from $135
Article excerpts:
With Q1 AI spending hitting $7.7 billion and projected long-term cash requirements reaching $120 billion, investors are questioning the sustainability of this strategy. Significant risks loom, including the August 4 debut earnings report and the massive August 6 lock-up expiration involving 911.5 million shares. Consequently, short interest has surged to 32% of the float, reflecting market skepticism regarding the company’s valuation and the ability of Starlink’s profits to subsidize aggressive AI expansion.
The company’s Q1 AI-related capital expenditures have surged to $7.7 billion, approximately three times that of the same period last year. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that xAI will consume a combined total of up to $120 billion in cash between 2026 and 2027—a figure that is nearly 1.6 times SpaceX’s IPO proceeds of $75 billion.
Up to 911.5 million restricted shares will become eligible for sale for the first time, representing a market value of up to $116 billion. These shares come from early investors and private market buyers, a significant portion of whom may seek to cash out on substantial returns.
According to data from S3 Partners, currently about 206 million shares are shorted, representing 32% of the float, with a nominal short position of about $25 billion—whereas just a month ago, this figure was only about 40 million shares, representing 5% to 7%.
https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262047951-spacex-spcx-xai-texas-data-center-expansion-capex-spacex-stock-pressure-earnings-lockup-tradingkey
But they're not there yet.
And therefore, instead of investing in SpaceX, invest in the companies that supply SpaceX; invest in companies that supply robotics, invest in companies that supply AI, datacenters, materials, communications. Whether or not SpaceX succeeds in the short term, it will need all of these commodities regardless of its short or medium term successes or failures.
-PJ