Does Someone on Polymarket Know That Putin Is Going Down?

"As NBC News reports, the account is called "ZnotluvuiSamez," and features the Ukrainian flag as its profile picture. The account made multiple big bets surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war, including $409,000 on a contract that asks if "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?"

According to users' overall bets, there's currently a "11 percent chance" that Putin will be out by the end of the year.

Of course, a massive bet is far from a guarantee that Putin will no longer be president, whether through an ouster or a decision to step down. For one, Putin isn't up for reelection until four years from now — and given the country's track record, it's not like the democratic process is being in any way respected regardless.

The news comes after Moscow was hammered by renewed Ukrainian drone strikes, with former US defense secretary Leon Panetta telling NewsNation on Wednesday that "it's clear right now that Putin is cornered in this situation and is not quite sure what to do."

"He obviously ought to, frankly, negotiate some kind of ceasefire, but knowing Putin, he will continue to resist that, and Russia is going to pay the price," he added.

Ehile there's no evidence to suggest an imminent ouster, the sheer amount of insider trading on Polymarket lends the enormous bet at least some credence.

At the same time, the war in Ukraine is showing no sign of letting up, with Putin ruling out any future peace talks. In other words, it's not looking likely that the president will simply hang up his coat in the middle of a raging conflict — and after over 26 years of ruling Russia with an iron fist."

ARTICLE

42.74 per cent of Russia’s total designed oil refining capacity has already been put out of action-INFOGRAPHICS
By General Staff press center
07.04.26
https://censor.net/en/n4011719

As of early July 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ campaign of precision strikes had reached new heights.

This was reported by Censor.NET, citing the General Staff’s press center.

As of the beginning of July 2026, the campaign of systematic strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces has reached new levels

KEY FACTS AND FIGURES:

• Record downtime: As a result of the attacks, 42.74% of the total design capacity of Russian oil refining was disabled.

• Scale of damage: During the last month, 8 oil refineries were successfully attacked.

• Destruction of tanks: More than 60 RVS (tanks) were eliminated or critically damaged, of which 58% were petroleum products and 42% were crude oil.

• Economic impact: For the year (from August 2025), the total losses of the industry reached 13.5 billion US dollars.

• Consequences for the aggressor: Fuel crisis.

• Production reduction.

• The timing of repairs is constantly postponed due to the inability to obtain the necessary spare parts and equipment.

VIDEO

WOW! THIS IS AN INCREDIBLE VIDEO!

Ukraine Waited for Russian Fighter Reinforcements to Reach Crimea — Then Blew Them Up
7-5-2026 11:40 a.m. E.S.T. (3 hours ago!)
Length of video: 30:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjzQnpZNscs

“Ukraine waited until Russia sent fighter reinforcements to Crimea — then launched a carefully timed UAV operation against Saky air base.

In this military documentary-style breakdown, we follow how Ukrainian FP-2 drones approached western Crimea in multiple groups, forcing Russian air-defense systems to split their attention. From the S-400 Triumf battery at Olenivka, to the S-350 Vityaz near Myrnyi, and finally the Pantsir-S1 protecting Saky airfield, each defensive layer was pressured, confused, and gradually overwhelmed.

The mission did not rely on brute force. Instead, Ukraine used timing, low-altitude flight, radar confusion, decoy maneuvers, and coordinated attack angles to open a narrow path into Saky. Once the final defensive layer was broken, the remaining FP-2 drones struck the hangar area where Russia had concentrated Su-30SM, Su-30, and Su-24 aircraft, along with fuel trucks, maintenance equipment, and support depots.”

00:00 - Ukraine Sets the S-400 Trap

02:40 - Northern UAVs Fool Russian Missiles

07:02 - Southern UAVs Disappear from Radar

10:10 - FP-2 Drones Strike the S-400 Battery

14:16 - S-350 Vityaz Strikes Back

18:03 - Ukraine Confuses the Radar Network

21:21 - Pantsir-S1 Fires in Desperation

27:32 - The Final Strike Burns Saky

VIDEO

Russia is weak! Ukraine is waiting for signal to strike & de-occupy Moldova!
RFU News — Strategic Geopolitics
7-5-2026 2:45 p.m. EST
704K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g6nv6xanQALength 5:40

⚠️ Watch RFU in 20 languages:

“In this video, we will analyze why Moldova is having its best chance in years to end Russia’s hold over Transnistria.

Here, Russia is suffering bigger losses in the war, as Ukrainian strikes keep disrupting the systems the Kremlin needs to sustain its military campaign. As that pressure spreads, Transnistria is becoming harder for Moscow to support, pushing Moldova toward a now or never decision.

Russia is weaker than it has been in years, and even Putin has begun admitting it. Recently he has stated that Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and export infrastructure are working, directly causing the current fuel shortage plaguing Russia. At the same time, mid-range strikes attacks on trucks and bridges are heavily undermining the Russian army’s logistics, disrupting the routes Moscow depends on to move supplies and support its forces inside Ukraine.

Analysts argue that Russia is now even losing the war at this rate, as the effects from Ukraine’s strikes are compounded by airports are being shut down, and public support wearing increasingly thinner. They argue that Russia is more vulnerable than ever before and that this is Ukraine’s time to deal a decisive blow to remove the threat Russia poses to the West, especially as the more isolated positions like Transnistria become harder to reach and harder to control.

Transnistria, the narrow strip of Moldovan territory where Russia has kept a military presence for decades, has long been used to influence Moldova and maintain pressure near southwestern Ukraine. That position is now becoming harder for Moscow to sustain, because Russia cannot reinforce the enclave directly by land, with Ukraine blocking the eastern side and Moldova controlling access from the west. The joint blockade is tightening that pressure even further, leaving Transnistria more exposed just as Moldova is being pushed toward a critical decision.

That growing pressure around Transnistria is now creating a real opening for Moldova to remove a Russian presence that has shaped the country’s security for decades, if Chisinau is willing to ask Ukraine to act. Deputy commander of the Third Army Corps Maksym Zhorin has already said openly that Ukraine is ready to rapidly remove Russian forces from Transnistria by force. This becomes clearer from the map, as Transnistria is a long, narrow enclave pressed directly against Ukraine’s border, meaning any operation would begin from the same line where Ukrainian forces are already positioned and could push straight toward the enclave’s main centers. Russia, by contrast, would be trying to defend an isolated position with only a limited force inside it and no easy way to reinforce by land. Under those conditions, a Ukrainian operation could collapse Russian forces in the area quickly once Moldova gives the order.

Ukraine is already turning the border with Transnistria into a fortified line built for speed and control. Ukrainian forces are building layered fortifications and obstacles to block any sudden move from the enclave. At the same time, lateral roads are being expanded so units can shift quickly to the right sector should the need arise. Commanders are also making sure whether the troops on this line are fully prepared, while medical services are being readied so the sector can keep functioning even if the situation worsens quickly.

This strengthens the border against any move from Transnistria now, while also creating the framework Ukraine would need if Moldova asks it to go in. Russia has already tried to work around that tightening line, and Ukraine shut one of those efforts down when its intelligence services and navy exposed a covert smuggling route from Abkhazia through civilian boats near Snake Island that was being used to smuggle military supplies into Transnistria. So while the political order has not yet come from Chisinau, the balance around Transnistria can still change, and every delay gives Russia more time to make this opening harder to use.

Overall, Russia is at its weakest, exactly when Transnistria depends on its support most, as Moscow is already struggling to keep its wider war efforts and is suffering problems at home. The more the enclave becomes harder to hold together, the more it will shift from a Russian pressure point inside Moldova into an exposed liability that Ukraine could help dismantle quickly. However, this leaves the most important decision of the crisis in Moldova’s hands, at a hit or miss moment that may not repeat itself.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.