Somewhat of an odd question. In your own linked UGS report , the figures show repeated large earthquakes at the junction between the Southern Mojave Fault and the San Andreus Fault each time stress exceeded 2.6 MPa.
Yes, current modeled stress is higher than 3.0. Earthquakes are random, and friction between miles of rocks is never exactly what it was the last earthquakes in the same spot. But, on average, yes. We are overdue.
Just like the Cascadia Fault offshore of the entire coast from BC-WASHINGTON-OREGON-NORCAL. We are overdue up there too.
Maybe we could do something to lubricate the fault so it slides smoothly. I would suggest throwing Gavin Newsome into a volcano right after he does his hair.
As I first responded, the historical measurements were mostly actual measurements.
However the current numbers they use are based on model not measurement, meaning the model and/or the underlying presumption is not correct, exposed by the logical contradiction.
So I guess I misunderstood that the >3 numbers you used were from the report not elsewhere.