[ScaniaBoy]

Even given that the poll is correct (and given the large differences between Labour and Reform and the other parties I think we can assume that) I'm not sure Restore will sink Reform and save Labour.

If Burnham wins there will be a leadership fight within Labour. In all likelihood Starmer will lose, but it may be a bloody fight. The new PM does not have to call for a new national election, but the situation may be such that he will feel forced to do it.

If Burnham loses the by-election there will not be any challenge to Starmer, or a very weak one that he will be able to win, in which case he will sit as PM until his five years are up.

[dfwgator]

If Burnham wins there will be a leadership fight within Labour.

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There won’t be a fight, Starmer will stand down for Burnham, without a fight.