You’re right. Napoleon said “History turns on the point of a bayonet.” Leaflets alone usually won’t do the trick.
The 1989 Romanian revolution is a good example of that. Ceaușescu fell from power only after the army turned against him.
In the case of Iran, they can’t be American bayonets. The American public won’t stand for it, especially if it’s not a quick operation.
There’s no Pearl Harbor to rally the public here.
You are probably right. That is one reason why we haven't won a war since 1945, Grenada and Iraq War I possible exceptions. Even in Iraq War I, we didn't push on into Baghdad.
President Trump dominates the Republican Party, with politicians who voted for impeachment or who opposed redistricting going down to defeat. Having weakened the RINO wing, Trump has targeted the antiwar alt-right crowd. Assuming that Tom Massie goes down today, the President will have shown his dominance over his GOP antiwar opposition.
However, elections are won by coalitions. His MAGA base is steady and would likely support sustained assaults of Iran, but that base is not a majority. In 2024, Trump was able to draw non-traditional Republican voters to his side. However, these voters are not likely to accept financial hardships over a sustained period.