SpaceX HLS: Heavy transport & once Moon colony ops really get underway, crew rotations up to Gateway for return to Earth via Orion capsule. HLS requires massive fueling once it reaches low-Earth orbit. HLS can make only one Moon landing and ascent per each low-Earth fueling & reloading with cargo.
Blue Origin lander: This lander is like a larger, upgraded version of the Apollo LEM. Launches directly from Earth to the Moon, no on-orbit fueling necessary. The cargo capacity is considerably less than HLS; however, the Origin lander is ideal for providing an initial Moon habitat, as it can land and stay.
The Lunar Gateway has been cancelled.
The SpaceX lander has a literal mountain of hurdles it has to pass in order to win the contract; without cutting corners there is no way that that lander will be man-rated and certified by 2028 or even 2030.
Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander is nothing like the Apollo lander. It will ride on the Artemis III mission, if it manages to pass a slightly smaller mountain of hurdles than the ones facing SpaceX and win the contract. It could beat SpaceX by a year or so around 2029.
As you might see from any realistic projection for Artemis III, it may not happen in 2028-2030 time frame.
SpaceX and Blue Moon have to show proof that they can land on the Moon in un-crewed tests <- note the plural. Will the 50’ tall SpaceX lander topple over on the most rugged terrain on the Moon? Will its elevator work? more than once? Can Blue Moon deploy its multi-staged 20’ ladder?
Will the Chinese be there to watch the tests? If they grant permission to land that is, since the Chinese mission will be militarized.