I can’t quite figure out why the oil supply is in such a delicate state when only 20% of the world’s oil consumption goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
A graph.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus1&f=a
Look up to 2009. Not past it. That’s how grim the situation was.
In 2009 shale fracking started and oil flowed. It was not a new discovery, starting in NoDak and then the Permian. That oil was known to be there. It was the Fed declaring 0% interest rates that got it to flow. It could not flow because rates precluded the risk.
Everyone who imagines oil is being created all the time didn’t really get heard in 2007 or 2008. The turn up in the graph is not from fields that went empty and magically refilled. It was from the Fed making new fields flow. These new fields will themselves top out and head down, just as was happening from the 1970s onward. Permian guys say next year, certainly if rates respond upward to inflation and the price doesn’t remain $100+.