[SmokingJoe]

“Show me one, just one, 2025 or 2026 election where Trump not on the Ticket didn't make a difference.”

Republicans have successfully defended or won seats in GOP territory:

Florida U.S. House specials (2025): Republicans won both — Randy Fine in Florida's 6th District (solidly Republican, replacing Matt Gaetz) and Jimmy Patronis in the 1st District (replacing Michael Waltz). These were holds in R+ districts.

Tennessee U.S. House special (Dec. 2025): Matt Van Epps (R) won a strongly Republican district, though by a narrower margin (9 points) than the prior Republican performance.

Georgia's 14th Congressional District special: A March 2026 election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene led to an April 7 runoff between Republican Clayton Fuller and Democrat Shawn Harris in a heavily R+ district (expected Republican hold).

Other Republican holds have occurred in state legislative races in Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida. Trump not being tickets never made any difference.

[SmokingJoe]

And Trump didn't really campaign for them.
Midterms will be another matter altogether.
Trump WILL campaign and campaign hard for Republicans in competitive districts.....and win.

[spintreebob]

“though by a narrower margin”

55-45 districts become 53-47. 51-49 become 49-51. Just a few in turnout can make a few in percentage and a close win for some, a close loss for others.

[spintreebob]

“though by a narrower margin”

55-45 districts become 53-47. 51-49 become 49-51. Just a few in turnout can make a few in percentage and a close win for some, a close loss for others.