Posted on 02/13/2026 12:25:39 PM PST by SmokingJoe
It's uploaded by the channel Dr. Josh C. Simmons on February 13, 2026 (today, based on current timing), and has quickly gathered around 5,285 views and 323 likes so far. Key Points from the Video
The core argument is that major tech companies (Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Amazon, and Meta), which are NVIDIA's largest customers for AI chips, collectively announced roughly $690 billion in AI-related capital expenditures (CapEx) planned for 2026.
Despite many of them beating earnings expectations recently, the market reacted negatively ā wiping out about $1 trillion in combined market capitalization in a short period (described as "one week"). CapEx breakdown (approximate figures cited):
Alphabet: ~$180B (doubled from prior year)
Amazon: ~$200B (up ~50% YoY)
Microsoft: $120B+
Meta: $115ā135B
(Plus mentions of Oracle at ~$50B in related spending) Wall Street's skepticism: Investors appear unconvinced that this massive AI infrastructure spend will actually generate proportional returns/monetization soon. Stocks dropped sharply (e.g., Alphabet -9%, Microsoft significantly off highs).
NVIDIA's position: The company is portrayed as the big winner here ā they reported $57 billion in quarterly revenue (with data center/AI chips at ~$50B, up 66% YoY), and are guiding even higher (~$65B) for the quarter ending February 25, 2026. The video suggests NVIDIA profits massively from selling the picks and shovels (chips/GPUs) regardless of whether the AI "gold rush" ultimately pays off for the buyers.
Bubble warning: The presenter references Fidelity's "5 bubble indicators," claiming the current AI hype meets all five:
Elevated valuations Rapid/unprecedented spending Circular financing (money cycling in ways that inflate hype) Reliance on debt/leverage Lagging or minimal monetization (noted: only ~4 cents in revenue per $1 spent on AI infrastructure so far)
The tone is skeptical/critical of the AI investment frenzy, predicting an eventual correction or "bubble" pop, while highlighting how NVIDIA benefits in the meantime.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtu.be ...
Amat was already mentioned here as making the necessary tools for all chips. But also look at Micron and SanDisk.Both have inventory sold into 2028 and beyond. The demand is future based in all AI,Memory, and military needs.
Their balance sheets are golden! Not a bubble- as this is no longer cyclical for the best of the best! But - what do I know?š§š»
Fine, but Iām not talking about stock movements, Iām talking about underlying tech.
I know I’m way over my skies here, But doesn’t the arc greatly improve as the newer, greater and faster chips keep using less power. And also run cooler using a more efficient cooling medium than H2O.also storage and computing power keeps multiplying in unbelievable strides.This brings everyday practical uses in science, industry, war and space under better human control while helping outpace our vulnerabilities and survival.This forces us to tread forward in hopes of harnessing the ever elusive Fusion to help take the load off. Every breakthrough in storage and memory starts another cycle of breakthroughs.So the process will keep progressing and we will keep investing in the best. š
Gasp! "It's all over for Nvidia!"
So Wall St. "experts" and financial wags have run back to their foxhole typewriters, to report that Nvidia continues to defy "the money's" desire for debt-fueled "returns" to bondholders.
And, absent fat yields from Nvidia bonds - because Nvidia is amazingly surviving with relatively little debt (when compared to, say Broadcomm <-- beloved by "the money" to the extent that AVGO's P/E ratio is much higher than NVDA's P/E ratio <-- about which Wall St. is aghast, again) . . . sure enough, NVDA is down, down, down . . . and no surprise, somewhere down there, "the money" will return to buying.
One way or another, debt-fueled or price increases, "the money" is going to get its returns.
Oh. About Cisco Systems and "the 2000 bubble burst." That occured more than 9 years after CSCO's P/E ratio was somewhere over 40 <-- a maddening number "back in the day." Never mind, back then, and now, that a going concern, produces a product in high demand, sells the product, runs to the bank to deposit the check, runs back to the shop and produces more product . . . without much need nor worry about: debt.
PS. I prefer an AI future where AI assists people. I would like to see Apple produce an AI Apple Peeler. I would like to see AI "smart" tools that prove their value, before letting loose a bunch of "street legal self-driving race cars."
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