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National Weather Service seasonal Climate Outlooks OFFICIAL Forecasts Dec-Jan-Feb 2025-26
NOAA/ National Weather Service ^ | 12-01-25 | US Gov.

Posted on 01/29/2026 4:18:09 PM PST by daniel1212

Text-Format
Discussions

Monthly
Long Lead
30-& 90-Day Hawaiian

More Outlooks
FMA 2026
MAM 2026
AMJ 2026
MJJ 2026
JJA 2026
JAS 2026
ASO 2026
SON 2026
OND 2026
NDJ 2026 - 27
DJF 2026 - 27
JFM 2027
FMA 2027
0.5mn Feb 2026

Climatological Values (1991-2020) for FMA

Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
Tools Discussion (updated as new tools are implemented)
Canonical Correlation Analysis
Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis
Optimal Climate Normals
Climate Forecast System
Screening Multiple Linear Regression Tool
Probability of Exceedence


TOPICS: Agriculture; Arts/Photography; Gardening; Outdoors
KEYWORDS: climate; noaa; warming
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Hard to predict. Latest OFFICIAL Forecasts Feb-Mar-Apr 2026 :


1 posted on 01/29/2026 4:18:09 PM PST by daniel1212
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To: daniel1212

I trust NOAA about as much as I trust Hunter Biden, Nanny Pelousy, Billy Jeff Clinton, and Newsom.

NOAA has “corrected” older temperature data to make it more “accurate.” Michael Mann would be proud.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/02/25/noaas-homogenized-temperature-records-a-statistical-house-of-cards/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/453353528124367/posts/25250221941344182/


2 posted on 01/29/2026 4:48:40 PM PST by Ronaldus Magnus III (Do, or do not, there is no try. )
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To: daniel1212

Interesting.

We’ve been well below normal for temperature for a while now. It’s been below zero for a few nights now and is forecast for more of the same for a few days yet.

Ryan Hall and Max Velocity are more accurate.


3 posted on 01/29/2026 5:12:01 PM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus….)
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To: daniel1212

The model hit .500 for Southern AZ - December and January have been warmer than average, but significantly wetter than average, especially in the late December and early January period.


4 posted on 01/29/2026 5:14:50 PM PST by AzSteven ("War is less costly than servitude, the choice is always between Verdun and Dachau." Jean Dutourd )
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To: metmom

Tampa area has been about 12 degrees below average this month. Wunderground wipes out historical records so it can’t be compared to previous years (at least on my browser). Highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s much of this month whereas averages are 70s/50s. So almost 20 degrees below normal.

I blame all the volcanoes. They’ll blame Man regardless so they hide the data when it doesn’t conform.

I have learned you seldom go wrong when you blame ‘the PTBs’ as they are so crooked. Otoh, I make a boat load of money off these fools in the markets.


5 posted on 01/29/2026 5:30:56 PM PST by Justa (Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people....)
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To: Ronaldus Magnus III

I get up between 5 - 6 and the last three days it’s been 6 below zero when I got up, here in Indy.


6 posted on 01/29/2026 6:09:35 PM PST by circlecity
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To: daniel1212

Wow, did they blow that. Here in the Northeast it’s been colder than ever and that last storm dumped a ton of snow. I’m worried February will be even worse.

-SB


7 posted on 01/29/2026 6:24:10 PM PST by Snowybear (Do or do not, there is no try.)
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To: Snowybear
Wow, did they blow that. Here in the Northeast it’s been colder than ever and that last storm dumped a ton of snow. I’m worried February will be even worse. -SB

Although I have criticized the NOAA as it seemed to me that up to maybe 3-4 years ago, it was almost always predicting above average temps (as it is for March to May*), more than was actually realized, yet forecasting 3 months and more is very hard, at least as concerns New England, so credit goes to them for trying.


8 posted on 01/29/2026 6:56:39 PM PST by daniel1212 (Turn 2 the Lord Jesus who saves damned+destitute sinners on His acct, believe, b baptized+follow HIM)
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To: Snowybear
Here in the Northeast it’s been colder than ever and that last storm dumped a ton of snow

You mean like:


All content © Copyright 2000 - 2026 WHDH-TV [Boston]

9 posted on 01/29/2026 7:02:44 PM PST by daniel1212 (Turn 2 the Lord Jesus who saves damned+destitute sinners on His acct, believe, b baptized+follow HIM)
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To: daniel1212

Yep, but no snow for central MA on Sunday unless things change wildly. A high pressure system will push it out to sea THANK GOD.

-SB


10 posted on 01/29/2026 7:06:30 PM PST by Snowybear (Do or do not, there is no try.)
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To: daniel1212

Yeah, really anything further out than 48 hours is guess work.

Back in February of 2015 we got 10 feet of snow in one month. I still don’t know how I got through it.

-SB


11 posted on 01/29/2026 7:08:33 PM PST by Snowybear (Do or do not, there is no try.)
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To: daniel1212

Wasn’t THE END OF SNOW AND ICE predicted in 1995... 2005......2015............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................


12 posted on 01/29/2026 7:18:46 PM PST by Ronaldus Magnus III (Do, or do not, there is no try. )
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