They will have to prove that they can refuel in space without losing any fuel to boil-off and do that at least 10 times successfully in a row. That is only one of the many major milestones they will have to demonstrate before they are ready to deliver anyone to the Moon. They have optimistically said they cannot achieve this before late 2028.
The other contender is Blue Origin’s Blue Moon b1 lander which has its own set of problems to achieve a 2028 landing.
Both will have to come up with something new to become the Artemis lunar lander, according to NASA Administrator Isaacman.
Absent either of those working out, the Chinese will be the first nation in the 21st century to land on the Moon and begin the establishment of a manned base at the Lunar South Pole. They have also announced that they will begin the construction of a mass driver to deliver “cargo” to Earth orbit. All Chinese bases are to some or to full extent militarized.
Ten times in a row? Not nine? Not eleven. Too bad for them you’re the arbiter.