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Growth Stocks & Small Caps Overtake Mag 7 Momentum,
GLD 15% Rally Potential | 8:49
Schwab Network | 248K subscribers | 346 views | December 12, 2025

The Benner Cycle is a market timing model developed by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer and ironworks businessman, in the late 19th century. It is based on historical patterns observed in agricultural commodity prices, particularly pig iron, and aims to predict recurring economic cycles through a series of repeating intervals. The cycle categorizes years into three phases: Panic Years (marked by irrational market swings and extreme price movements), Good Times (periods of high prices and strong markets, ideal for selling assets), and Hard Times (years of low prices, considered optimal for buying and holding assets until the next boom). Benner proposed that financial panics occur on a cycle of roughly 18, 20, and 16 years (18-20-16), followed by approximately 7 years of Good Times, 11 years of transition to Hard Times, and a 9-year recovery period back to Good Times (7-11-9). The model, first published in his 1875 book Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices, has been used by some analysts to forecast market events, with claims of predicting major crises like the 1929 crash and the 2008 financial crisis, though its accuracy is debated, especially in modern, complex markets.

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