[MtnClimber]

“With 99% of votes counted, Van Epps’ lead was around 9 percentage points. The previous Republican who held the seat won by 21 points last year.”

The 21% win last year was "Trump Effect" since Trump won by 22%. I did not expect that this year. I thought Van Epps could win by 10% if he did not pull in any swing voters and maybe 15% if he did pull in swing voters. But it seems the swing voters did not show up or were evenly split.

[plain talk]

Sure. It was an off year special election which affects things and probably other factors of which I am unaware.

Here are results from previous elections. The dems made some headway there.

Mark Green
2018 % vote 66.9% margin 34.8 points
2020 % vote 69.9% margin 42.6
2022 % vote 60.0% margin 21.9
2024 % vote 59.5% margin 21.5

Matt van Epps
2025 % vote 53.9% margin 9