Hard to predict how the US will do if gold becomes a crucial component of currency value.
One analyst, Dowd, says we don’t have a piddly 8,100 tons....but more. Most question the 8,000 tons we say we have. Dowd claims we may have Libya, Iraq, and few other nations Gold as much of theirs “ disappeared” when we invaded them.
Could be. If not, our currency is in big trouble.
I will add, Judy Shelton has stated in no less than four interviews, the US plans to launch Gold bonds in July 2026, our 250th anniversary, redeemable in Gold at maturity 30-50 years.
We shall see.
“Hard to predict “
Easy for you to predict ... almost always WRONG!
“Hard to predict how the US will do “
Major Misses: Timing’s the Killer
Here’s where the rubber hits the road—and your capital:
Euro collapse, circa 2015: Called it dead; instead, EUR/USD rose from ~1.08 to ~1.21 by 2020. Anyone betting USD heavy lost straight up (Tactical Investor).
Gold to $5,000 by 2016: Bold. Delivered zero. Gold peaked at under $2,100 and then drifted. Long gold bet would’ve butchered real returns (Tactical Investor).
China becomes the financial capital by 2015.75: Nope. The U.S. stayed dominant. China cooled off from 2015 onward. Investors loading up on China under‑weighted U.S. tech boom and got smoked (Tactical Investor).
Western sovereign default crisis (2015): The Big Bang never came. ECB backstops stabilised sovereign debt. Cash‑heavy positions missed double digit equity returns across 2015–2020 bull (Tactical Investor).
COVID crash non‑recovery: Armstrong predicted no recovery. Markets bottomed in March 2020 and soared by late 2020. If you sat it out—you missed one of fastest bull runs ever (Tactical Investor).
2022 crisis via war cycle: Predicted full blowout by 2023. Nope—markets ended 2023 up ~24% (S&P). Bear innings would’ve gutted portfolios (Tactical Investor).
https://tacticalinvestor.com/martin-armstrong-blog-sharp-insight-or-cyclical-nonsense/