Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

--> YouTube-Generated Transcript <--
0:00·Let's go check the markets at 12:00
0:02·noon. In the east, it is green across
0:03·the board. The NASDAQ is the big winner
0:06·today. Of course, Apple is playing a big
0:08·role in that. A new record high. It is
0:11·nearing $4 trillion in market cap. Take
0:13·a look at that. 11 bucks to the upside
0:16·almost 5%.
0:19·It needs to finish the day above 25902
0:22·for a record closing high. I don't know
0:25·if this has been a a stealth move or
0:28·whatever you want to call it, but this
0:30·stock seems to be back as word is that
0:33·the iPhone 17 is driving the strongest
0:36·smartphone sales growth for Apple since
0:38·the pandemic.
0:38·All right, come on. Be a little bit more
0:40·excited about it. You and I have been
0:41·talking about this since the summer. And
0:44·I think one of the things that's
0:45·important to understand in particular
0:47·with the Max 7 is where are people in
0:50·terms of positioning, sentiment, and
0:52·expectations? Yes, we are getting better
0:55·fundamental news regarding iPhone sales.
0:58·I saw the figure. It's up about 14%
1:01·relative to where we were 17 versus the
1:04·16 on the first 10 days uptake. But I
1:06·want everyone to just remember where was
1:08·Apple in 2024. Apple was negative on the
1:11·year. Think about that. Where was
1:13·Alphabet in 2024? It was negative on the
1:16·year. And what did that do? that carried
1:18·forward into 2025. This kind of muted
1:23·expectation, muted sentiment, muted
1:26·positioning. Everyone wanted Nvidia and
1:28·then all you need is that one spark,
1:30·that one catalyst. And maybe it was Tim
1:34·Cook in the Oval Office with the
1:35·president. I'm not sure if that's what
1:37·it was.
1:37·Maybe you can make a checklist and just
1:39·say at the bottom all the above,
1:40·what whatever it might be, but it's a
1:42·rebuilding of positioning. It's the the
1:45·the moving of sentiment from somewhat
1:48·muted to more bullish. And you see it
1:50·reflected in the price action and strong
1:54·technicals. And we're seeing it in
1:56·Alphabet year to date. You saw it
1:58·earlier in the year in Microsoft and now
2:00·you're seeing it in Apple. One last
2:01·point. I'll tell you what, Amazon's
2:03·going to be the next one. I think it's
2:04·going to be a 2026 story because Amazon
2:07·is now getting a little bit of the
2:08·disappointment because it's not really
2:10·responding the way people thought in
2:12·2025. watch 2026, Amazon do what
2:16·Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft did this
2:18·year.
2:19·Let me just let me just bring in Hang on
2:20·before you get there. I I'll come to you
2:21·guys and I'll get everybody involved,
2:23·but I want to bring in Steve Kovac who
2:24·follows this company. This stock
2:26·obviously um as we look at this stock
2:28·hit a new high. Joe said maybe it's
2:31·this, maybe it's that, maybe it's
2:33·everything. Maybe it's the fact that
2:34·just the the company has finally given
2:37·people a reason to buy a new phone to
2:39·upgrade after a number of years, the
2:40·strongest as we said since the pandemic.
2:43·Maybe it's also Tim Cook's diplomacy
2:45·both at home and abroad that has led
2:48·this stock on this renewed run. What do
2:50·you think?
2:50·Yeah, the the answer is yes, Scott. All
2:52·of the above, just like just like he
2:54·alluded to. And part of that is also
2:56·we're seeing the China rebound as well.
2:58·So that Bloomberg headline that Joe was
3:00·referring to that they are estimating
3:02·that sales are 14% better than they were
3:05·a year ago. And we've been hearing that
3:06·since the iPhone went on sale about a
3:08·month ago. That base model of the
3:10·iPhone, the iPhone 17 got some of those
3:13·uh high-end features that we saw in the
3:14·Pro models before. That's finally made
3:16·their way down to that base model. And
3:18·on top of that, the China subsidies are
3:20·helping out a lot too. Plus, we just
3:22·woke up this morning to just tons of uh
3:25·positive chatter from the analyst
3:26·community. You have Evercore adding them
3:28·to their uh tactical outperform list.
3:30·You have Loop Capital saying the 17
3:33·lineup is blowing past all of their
3:35·expectations. It's just showing this
3:37·thesis that we had last year that AI
3:40·could provide this big boost that Apple
3:42·intelligence roll out uh to get people
3:44·to upgrade. That didn't happen. That
3:46·never materialized. And not just because
3:48·Apple failed to deliver so many of those
3:50·features. They did early on what they
3:53·promised to do and then they kind of
3:55·failed. What we're seeing here is new
3:57·designs, uh, new form factor with the
3:59·iPhone Air. All of that is getting
4:01·people excited. I saw this on launch
4:04·day. I was standing outside the Fifth
4:05·Avenue Apple Store, Scott, and you could
4:07·just tell the vibes were totally
4:08·different. People were excited about
4:10·this lineup. They wanted those new Pro
4:12·phones with that great camera system and
4:14·a new design. Uh, the Air doesn't seem
4:16·to be selling as well here in the United
4:18·States, but in China, those customers
4:20·are really hot on it. So, look, we're in
4:22·10 days time, I'm going to be out in
4:24·Certino. We're going to have those
4:25·earnings. We're going to get our first
4:27·uh real data, the first several days of
4:29·iPhone 17 sales. And then I'll just talk
4:32·about what uh Loop Capital was saying
4:33·this morning. Look out for the guidance
4:35·because that might actually surprise to
4:37·the upside for the December quarter if
4:39·this momentum continues. Scott.
4:41·Yeah. Uh you mentioned Loop and they uh
4:44·upgrade today to buy from hold the
4:46·target to 315 as you said from 226. So
4:50·the target had been blown through and
4:52·now they take it uh even higher. Uh
4:55·great job by the way guys on on the wall
4:57·uh that was put together uh to show all
4:59·of that positive news around Apple that
5:01·has led to the chart looking that way.
5:04·Uh so big props back in in the control
5:06·room. What do you want to say? You want
5:07·to rain on the parade totally because
5:10·she doesn't own this because she doesn't
5:11·own it.
5:11·It is I feel like I'm sitting on another
5:13·planet here. So Joe, when you said like
5:15·okay Google Alphabet could be the next
5:17·Apple or Amazon sorry could be the next
5:19·Apple. What? That means we're gonna be
5:20·up 1% on the year because that's where
5:22·we are. We're up 1% on the year. I said
5:24·next year, Amazon.
5:24·Next year. What does that mean? Yeah.
5:26·So, next year, Amazon's gonna be up 1%
5:27·for the year. This is This is crazy to
5:30·me that we're this excited about it. Um,
5:32·we're up 7% in the last 52 weeks. That's
5:35·half of what the market's returned. If
5:37·you look through all the Mag 7, Apple
5:39·has the worst setup, trading at 32 times
5:42·earnings. Even after this news, analyst
5:44·expectations are still coming in for
5:45·like 9 to 10% earnings growth ahead.
5:48·everything else out there has either a
5:50·better PE or better earnings growth
5:52·ahead of it. And I just think like I
5:53·don't know where all this excitement is
5:55·coming from. It's not in the huge AI
5:57·space. It's not it's just to me I'm like
6:00·what what are we talking about? Why are
6:01·we getting so excited about something
6:02·that's up 1% on the year 7 and a half%
6:05·over the last 52 weeks. It's just like
6:07·none of the numbers look compelling to
6:09·me. I could look out like far past the
6:12·mag seven and find tons of things that I
6:14·think have a better a better earnings
6:15·growth story, a better valuation story
6:18·behind it. You know, I sold I sold Next
6:20·Terra a couple weeks ago because the
6:21·numbers were not even this compelling.
6:23·It was 23 times earnings with 8%
6:25·earnings growth and I sold it because I
6:27·thought that was too expensive. So, I
6:28·don't see how we get this pumped about
6:30·it. Like, yeah, from a new iPhone
6:32·perspective, the story is good, but from
6:34·a valuation fundamental analysis
6:35·perspective, it's boring.
6:37·Wow. stock. The stock's up 30%. The
6:40·stock is up 30% since the beginning of
6:43·August. When I came on air, we talked
6:46·about it. I said, "This is a moment that
6:47·there's a clearing event. It's up 30%
6:50·since the beginning of August when we
6:52·came on air and we highlighted it. We
6:55·said this is the moment that we believe
6:57·Apple is about to make 30% and be done."
7:00·No, thank you.
7:01·Like, why should it go higher from here?
7:02·Momentum, Josh. Respectfully,
7:05·yeah, I know you're team Joe. You're
7:06·team Joe.
7:08·No, just respectfully I there are a lot
7:12·of things that there are a lot of things
7:14·that I just choose not to have an
7:15·opinion on. This is technology and I
7:18·have to tell you the thing that none of
7:20·us are saying out loud but is like
7:23·buzzing like wildfire among Silicon
7:26·Valley people is that Apple has a secret
7:29·project underway for employees only.
7:32·It's their own in-house chatbot. Code
7:34·name is Veritas. It is not available
7:37·to consumers right now, but it is
7:40·probably the early stages of what
7:43·Apple's AI is actually going to be.
7:46·Apple intelligence was a bust. We all
7:48·know that. It's not that it doesn't
7:49·work. It's that it didn't drive people
7:51·to say, "I have to have the new iPhone."
7:55·And the 17 is doing well. Probably
7:57·better than myself and and most other
7:59·people really uh had given them credit
8:01·for. And I think that's why you're
8:03·seeing the stock at a high. But what
8:04·takes this higher? What gener what what
8:07·what justifies 30 times uh earnings
8:10·which is admittedly very high for a
8:12·company with this level of growth? What
8:15·what could the only thing that could do
8:16·that is a chat GPT that Apple develops
8:20·and releases in its in its app store as
8:24·its own in-house AI available to
8:27·consumers. And the buzz right now is
8:30·that that's going that's a thing that's
8:33·going to happen. That's not in anyone's
8:35·numbers. So right now, OpenAI's app chat
8:39·GPT is the best uh app for AI in the app
8:43·store. And then we also know Apple's
8:46·heavily reliant on on Gemini. But the
8:48·thing is Apple employees are now using
8:51·Veritas and they are getting
8:54·contextual answers based on their own
8:57·personal life, their own personal
8:59·history in using that. And if and when
9:02·Apple decides that they want to roll
9:04·this thing out, um that's a whole
9:07·different story for the stock. And
9:09·that's the thing that I think nobody has
9:10·in their numbers or their expectations.
9:13·And that is the most important thing
9:15·that could

1 posted on 10/20/2025 5:17:52 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies ]


To: SunkenCiv

My dad talks about ignoring a guy he knew who pounded the table to buy Apple back when Microsoft was having to inject cash to keep Apple alive.


3 posted on 10/20/2025 5:22:08 PM PDT by fso301
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SunkenCiv

iPhones track and record every second of your life even when it’s off ,LOL


7 posted on 10/20/2025 5:37:16 PM PDT by butlerweave (Fateh)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SunkenCiv

forest gump bought some fruit


13 posted on 10/20/2025 8:09:16 PM PDT by Coleus (250K attend the March for Life, no violence, break-ins, stealing of podiums/laptops, etc., peaceful)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SunkenCiv

lol, I convinced my wife to buy $5,000 of Apple stock when it was $25 a share.

She sold it at $50!

Easy Come, Easy Go…:)


14 posted on 10/20/2025 8:27:13 PM PDT by rlmorel (Factio Communistica Sinensis Delenda Est.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SunkenCiv

My Edward Jones financial advisor suggested Apple so I bought 10 shares at $400 per. A couple of years later it split 7 to 1 sothen Ihad 70 shares. We’ve been selling it and buying more ever since. Similar with Amazon. My advisor is amazing and I recommend NOT investing on your own.

I enjoy voting to not retain Bezos as the boss of his company every year.


17 posted on 10/21/2025 5:05:53 AM PDT by subterfuge (I'm a pure-blood!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson