Pro-Life Congressman John James Favored to Win Open Michigan Governor’s Contest

Michigan Rep. John James is the best-positioned Republican candidate to flip Michigan’s governorship red in the 2026 contest, according to new polling.

The Plymouth Union Public (PUP) Research survey, shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation, found James leading a general election field and trouncing a crowded slate of candidates in the primary contest. In a hypothetical three-way general election contest, James received 35% support from likely general election voters, followed by a generic Democratic candidate who drew 31% of the vote and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a lifelong Democrat running as an independent, who garnered 12% support.

Former Republican Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, James’ primary opponent who has not held office since 2010, trails the generic Democrat in the three-way contest.

When testing Cox as the GOP gubernatorial candidate, the pollster found the generic Democrat the field with 31% of the vote, followed by Cox drawing 28% support and Duggan with 15% support.

James, an Army veteran and three-term lawmaker, announced his campaign in April to succeed term-limited Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. He previously came up short in prior runs for Senate in 2018 and 2020.

Early analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the open gubernatorial contest as a “toss-up.”

The Republican candidate has a 4-point advantage over a Democratic candidate in a generic gubernatorial ballot, according to the pollster.

History suggests the state’s open gubernatorial contest may favor the Republican who emerges as the general election nominee. Michigan’s three previous governors were all succeeded by someone of the opposing party.

The state’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, could also incentivize Republican voters to turn out in full force during the midterm elections.

The survey of 600 likely general election voters was conducted from Oct. 8 to Oct. 9.

Two-thirds of the poll’s respondents — who were all reached via phone — took the survey live and one-third took the survey through a text-to-web interface.

James is an early frontrunner in the GOP primary contest and has argued that he is the best-suited Republican to win the battleground state in 2026.

He holds a commanding lead in the primary contest, according to an additional PUP Research sample of 200 likely GOP primary voters.

James received support from 41% of likely Republican primary voters followed by Cox, who registered just 7% support.

Other GOP candidates in the race including state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and Tom Leonard, the former speaker of the Michigan House, clocked in at less than 5% support, according to the PUP Research sample. James expands his lead over Cox when surveying very conservative primary voters, drawing 49% of the vote compared to Cox, who receives 6% of the vote.

The results largely align with an internal poll from the James campaign conducted in mid-August, which found the House Republican leading his closest rival by roughly 50 points. The survey was first reported by the Daily Caller.

The Democratic primary field includes several candidates vying for the nomination. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is likely to emerge as the Democratic nominee, according to recent polling.

You are in effect proving the point again.

Robinson (NC) was the *elected* Lt. Governor. Obviously NC is willing to elect black candidates statewide to office. Obama carried the state in 2008. And Robinson was *elected* against headwinds of losing the governorship that year. Everyone knew he was black - he became famous for his viral video defending gun rights. Again everyone knew he was black - and he won the Republican nomination. And he won the primaries - both for Lt. Governor and Governor. The scandal over the alleged internet postings are what doomed him, not his race (you think if he was white he would have been given a pass on that? Of course not)...and this state seems to have a propensity to elect Democrat governors - the incumbent was a governor who defeated *white* candidates.

TW Shannon was indeed the Speaker of the House (that doesn’t fit your narrative but thank you for pointing that out). Nonetheless, Lankford was still better funded and well known as a Congressman than a state House Speaker. You have to know that. Are you actually going to claim that if Lankford had remained in the House and Shannon won the nomination instead he would not have won the general election?

Lynn Swann was not only running in a blue-leaning state at the time but also running against household name Ed Rendell. Any Republican would have had trouble against Ed Rendell even in a good year for Republicans - but 2006, as you would have to know if you had researched this beyond just a candidate’s race, was also one of the most horrific years for Republican candidates nationwide in the history of the modern 2 party system. Santorum, the incumbent US Senator, lost in a landslide there - and Santorum in case you were not aware is white. 2006 was also the year for Ohio governor election you mentioned with Ken Blackwell (Blackwell was also an *incumbent* statewide elected official) - not only terrible headwinds nationally, but the incumbent Republican administration (Taft) was mired in scandal to further doom the chances of any Republican candidate - Taft himself would have almost certainly lost if he had been the nominee (and he was white, by the way). Did you do any research on any of these elections than just looking up a list of black Republican candidates and summarily declaring them to have lost because of their race?

Daniel Cameron was an *incumbent* statewide elected official and everyone knew he was black when he won that general election. He also won highly contested primaries (strange how your standards change from one election to another regarding primaries vs. general elections as supposed evidence Republican voter “racism”). And in the gubernatorial election was running against an *incumbent* governor who had 65-70% approval ratings. So no, winning that election would not have been the walk in the park you claim it should have been had Cameron only been white... Kentucky has a propensity to elect Dem governors for whatever reason - and - newsflash - the prior Republican candidates who have lost were *white*. Nonetheless, had the establishment not written it off as a losing race from the beginning given Beshear’s very high popularity and he raised the funds to be on par with Beshear, who knows what may have happened. But for months, Beshear was controlling the narrative with Cameron having no way of responding - Beshear good ol’ boy with Kentucky values, Cameron a dangerous extremist who wants women to be raped and die in childbirth. Even with all of that headwind it was decided by just 5.07%. Drop $20 million into Cameron’s warchest by August - possibly a whole different ballgame. And I fear if the GOP doesn’t get their behinds in gear - as absurd as Amy McGrath is - they have a blueprint - and she even vastly outraised and outspent Mitch McConnell in 2020 - they will paint the GOP candidate whether it is Cameron or someone else - the same way, and if they don’t have the money to respond, that will potentially be trouble.

In Virginia...despite the turmoil in the last couple of weeks and Sears’ good debate performance...it is probably already too late. That race was written off and Spanberger spent months defining herself as this wonderful mainstream politician - Sears has had no money to respond. Despite what has occurred lately, months of messaging already in the voters’ heads is difficult to undo in just a few weeks, even if tens of millions of dollars that Sears needed to have no later than August just magically appeared in her account today. If Sears loses it will not be because of an aversion to black candidates by Virginia voters - Sears is the elected, incumbent Lt. Governor, and Obama carried the state twice. Sears is in trouble because of lack of campaign funds allowing Spanberger to control the race entirely, in addition she has to deal with the reality that despite the last state elections it is a Dem leaning state give which gives Spanberger that built-in advantage, and this is also an off year election on top of that where the party in power does not typically do as well. The fundraising issue reflects a problem the Right has vs. the Left. The Left will pour huge amounts of cash into even obscure races while the right naps. There are hardly any general elections this year - it is hardly excusable the Right has no organization to have money bombed for the handful of races on the ballot - should have been easy to focus on these few races. The Left hasn’t had and doesn’t have that trouble.

Very good. You are more informed and thorough than I.

Let’s see. Cameron tripped himself up. So did Robinson-big time.

Cain lost to Issakson. It was a missed opportunity to fight the racism charges the rats put on us at a time when only one or 2 GOP house members were black. Georgia then was solid red. Same with Shannon. The best candidate-money? I’d like to think we’re smarter than that. I’m old enough to remember California Governor Pete Wilson appointing a nobody named Seymour to succeed him in the senate-another loser 2 years later. Dan Quayle was smart enough to advocate a young Condi Rice get that seat. Next thing you know Clarence Thomas unites the democrat women and we end up with 25 years of Finestein/Boxer-a whole generation. Condi could have kept it.

Swann-they put up a rookie against a seasoned veteran. Stupid.

**Kentucky has a propensity to elect Dem governors for whatever reason**
**this state(NC) seems to have a propensity to elect Democrat governors - the incumbent was a governor who defeated *white* candidates.**
Doesn’t that tell you something like don’t take chances and don’t screw up?

Blackwell-Headwinds perhaps but Ohio was a swing state back then so it was a gamble. Santorum? Yes. He still wiped the floor with Casey in those 3 debates.

As for Virginia. If Sears can pull it off it would prime the pump for James and Macdonald in Florida. Youngkin was helped by the stupid statements of his opponent. This time Sears has a lot more help from them. We can hope but if she loses it will prove my point. Spanberger has no business winning. Even her district supported Trump and they couldn’t take her out.

In summation I’m expecting the worst but hoping for the best.

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