Here’s the potential problem with the Tories, if they manage to draw a couple extra percentage points away from Reform and Nigel Farage it might be enough to allow Labour to remain in power.
Just like Mamdani in NYC, he’s going to win because the opposition is splitting up the vote enough to allow Mamdani to win.
You’re right to be concerned in the parliamentary system with first past the post (like for US House but think 3-4 parties)
Farage could be denied an overall majority. It will be down to the voting quirks on Election Day (whenever it’s held)
The way it will work will come down to the quirks of first past the post in a multi party system!
😬😬😬
It’s not ideal....
Farage might win more elsewhere to offset the ones where a Tory somewhere else is going to retain the seat
They’re banking on this I feel and they call it the “Red Wall” (opposite color for you) it’s how Boris Johnson won a majority in 2019.
Northern working class and traditionally Labor voters who cross over, perhaps for the first time in their lives.
Farage has a similar appeal to them as Boris did though as you pointed out before Boris squandered that majority and trust fairly quickly .