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Gemini:
Here is an executive summary of President Vladimir Putin’s address and subsequent Q&A session at the 22nd annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.

## The Dawn of a Polycentric World

President Putin’s central thesis is that the world has irrevocably shifted from a unipolar, Western-dominated order to a **multipolar and polycentric reality**. He describes this new international system as more dynamic, complex, and democratic, with a greater number of states influencing global events. This transformation, he argues, is a direct result of the West’s failed attempt to establish and maintain global hegemony following the Cold War. The era where a “narrow group of the most powerful nations decided for the whole world” is “irretrievably gone.”

## Key Themes from the Address

### **Critique of Western Hegemony**

Putin argues that the Western attempt to create a single global hierarchy was a “strong temptation” that its leaders failed to resist. This led to a system where rules were set by a few, and dissenters were punished. He claims this approach failed to solve any global problems and instead created new ones, citing Russia’s repeated overtures to join NATO in 1954 and 2000, which were “turned down straight away.”

### **The Ukraine Conflict**

He frames the war in Ukraine as a “tragedy” for both Russians and Ukrainians, directly caused by decades of Western policy. He identifies key causes as:
* The eastward expansion of **NATO** toward Russia’s borders.
* The West’s use of Ukraine as a “destructive weapon” and an “expandable material.”
* Ignoring Russia’s security interests while fostering “rampant nationalism and neo-Nazism” in Ukraine since the 2014 “bloody coup d’etat.”

Putin concurs with President Donald Trump’s assessment that the conflict “could have been avoided” under a different U.S. administration that respected Russia’s interests.

### **Russia’s Resilience and Role**

Despite unprecedented sanctions—which he numbered at **over 30,000**—Putin asserts that efforts to isolate Russia have “failed altogether.” He contends that Russia has demonstrated immense resilience and remains an essential part of the “global equilibrium,” without which no strategic, economic, or cultural balance is possible. He warns that any attempt to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia is “doomed.”

### **The Rise of the Global Majority**

Putin highlights the growing influence of the **”global majority,”** exemplified by organizations like **BRICS** and the **Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)**. He characterizes these groups as non-hierarchical, pragmatic alliances that do not operate against anyone but rather in pursuit of their own national interests. He views this as the prototype for effective political practice in a polycentric world.

## Highlights from the Q&A Session

* **Military Situation:** Putin claimed Russian forces are advancing “steadily and resolutely” along the entire front line. He cited high Ukrainian casualties, stating that in September they lost **44,700 soldiers**, with forced mobilization bringing in only 18,500 new recruits, resulting in a net loss of over 11,000 troops for the month. He contrasted this with Russia’s volunteer-based military replenishment.
* **Relations with the U.S.:** He described President Donald Trump as a “comfortable person” to negotiate with because he is direct, rational, and operates based on his country’s interests. This approach, Putin believes, allows for frank discussions and the potential to find mutually beneficial solutions.
* **NATO Expansion:** He called Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO “nonsense,” arguing it has destroyed their advantageous neutral status, increased military tension in the region, and brought them no tangible security benefits.
* **Global Economy:** He stated that Russia is the **second-largest supplier of enriched uranium to the U.S.**, earning over $800 million in the first half of the year. He used this to illustrate the hypocrisy of Western sanctions, quoting the Roman phrase, “what is allowed to Jupiter is not allowed to a bull.”
* **Gaza Conflict:** Putin expressed readiness to support President Trump’s peace proposal for Gaza if it leads to the creation of a Palestinian state, which he sees as the ultimate key to resolving the conflict.
* **Strategic Stability:** On the New START treaty, Putin confirmed Russia’s offer to extend it for one year. However, he noted that future arms control negotiations must address Russia’s new hypersonic weapons and include the nuclear arsenals of other powers like China, the UK, and France.

That’s an excellent and insightful question that gets to the heart of political communication and strategy.

You are correct that in a purely objective sense, overwhelming strength should be self-evident. A lion doesn’t need to give a speech to the gazelles explaining why it’s the apex predator. However, international politics is not a jungle in that simple sense; it’s a complex system of perceptions, narratives, and alliances.

When a leader like Putin gives such a detailed speech from a claimed position of strength, it serves several strategic purposes that go far beyond a simple status update. It’s not just about stating facts; it’s about **shaping reality**.

Here’s why such a speech is considered necessary, broken down by the intended audience:

### 1. For the Domestic Audience (Russians)
* **Narrative Control:** The most crucial audience is at home. The Russian people are the ones feeling the effects of the war and sanctions. The speech is a tool to reinforce the official narrative: that their sacrifices are worthwhile, the cause is just, the leadership is competent, and victory is inevitable. It counters any alternative information or doubts that might seep in.
* **Maintaining Morale and Justification:** He isn’t just saying “we are strong”; he is explaining *why* they are strong and *why* they must endure. It’s about maintaining public support and justifying the immense cost of the conflict.

### 2. For Allies and Neutral Nations (The “Global Majority”)
* **Projecting Reliability:** For countries in BRICS, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, Russia is presenting itself as a reliable pole in a new “polycentric” world. The speech is a reassurance to these partners that Russia is a winning horse to back—that it can withstand Western pressure and will not collapse, making it a viable long-term strategic partner.
* **Selling an Alternative Vision:** The speech is a sales pitch for a new world order, one not dominated by the United States. By detailing the supposed failures of Western hegemony, he is inviting other nations to join him in building this new system.

### 3. For Adversaries (The West)
* **Psychological Warfare and Deterrence:** The message to the West is clear: “Your strategy is failing.” By confidently detailing Russia’s military advances and economic resilience, he aims to create fatigue, sow doubt, and erode the political will in Western capitals to continue supporting Ukraine. It’s a form of deterrence, suggesting that further escalation is futile.
* **Shaping the Terms of Negotiation:** All wars end in some form of negotiation. By repeatedly and publicly stating his narrative, Putin is attempting to frame the eventual terms of peace. He is defining what victory looks like for him and establishing his version of events as the baseline for any future talks.

In conclusion, a speech like this is a fundamental tool of power. **Strength in geopolitics is not just about having military and economic power; it’s about making sure every relevant actor *believes* you have that power and the will to use it.**

It isn’t a sign of weakness; it’s the active maintenance and projection of strength. To remain silent would allow others—namely his adversaries—to control the narrative about Russia’s condition, which is a risk no world leader is willing to take.