Posted on 10/03/2025 5:41:54 AM PDT by delta7
The condition of America’s workforce remains undetermined, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is currently not operational. The non-farm payrolls report will be delayed even if the unlikely event that the government reconciles today. The Chicago Federal Reserve compiled a separate report that indicates a contraction in the workforce.
Unemployment remains stagnant at 4.34%, up a mere 0.01% from August. Layoffs also remained relatively unchanged at 2.1%. We have not reached the point of mass layoffs where companies can no longer afford to pay their employees. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported in a separate analysis that layoffs declined 37% in September and fell 26% YoY. The company reported that planned furloughs are at their highest level since 2020, with 946,426 cuts between Q1 and Q3.
Companies are fighting to retain employees, and there are no signs of expansion. New hires for the year totaled 204,939, marking a massive 58% annual decline. The US economy has not seen such a slow pace of hiring since 2009 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Yet, the jobs data under the Biden Administration hid the real problem as the PUBLIC sector multiplied while the private sector stagnated.
The ADP report that is used as a confirmation of the BLS has been closely monitored in the wake of the government shutdown. The private sector eliminated 32,000 positions in September–a glaring warning sign as the markets were predicting an expansion of over 50,000. Private payrolls for August were revised to show a loss of 3,000 jobs, after data initially indicated a gain of 54,000. The ISM manufacturing survey index slightly rose to 49.1 in September from 48.7 but remains in depleted territory.
Small-and medium-sized businesses have been hit the hardest. Large corporations with over 500 employees did, in fact, add 33,000 jobs, offset by the number of layoffs smaller companies were forced to endure. Wage increases for workers who changed jobs in September fell to 6.6% from 7.1% MoM. Annual wage growth for job-stayers fell flat.
“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement.
The Federal Reserve will likely state that it needs the official BLS data to make an informed decision. Powell is careful with his words. Rate cuts will not entice companies to expand, despite Washington’s insistence that they would, as employers lack confidence in the future.
Odd economy. We are going through a major disruption with tariffs and immigrants leaving. It will settle out eventually and on a more solid footing methinks.
I don’t know how any news source can say something like a “16 year low” when we know how completely screwed up the BLS data has been over at least the past four years and probably longer than that. Fix the methodology and give everyone comfort that it is no longer politicized, then we can use that as a baseline going forward.
It need not be so. The great Thomas Sowell started his career there.
It need not be so. The great Thomas Sowell started his career there.
It need not be so. The great Thomas Sowell started his career there.
It need not be so. The great Thomas Sowell started his career there.
Sorry.
Here is the real time Inflation indicator:
Gold Price Performance USD
Change Amount %
Today +26.09 +0.68%
30 Days +295.32 +8.32%
6 Months +807.64 +26.59%
1 Year +1,192.62 +44.97%
5 Year +1,932.01 +101.01%
20 Years +3,377.72 +723.45%
goldprice.org - 08:46 NY Time
Odd economy.
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“Odd economy” only for the youngsters, economic cycles repeat. Remember the 70’s-1980? I do. We are just getting started.
??
The summer of 1982 was the end of the economic life of America, as I recall. If the phrase “End of our democracy” would have been popular back then, it would have been all over the media.
“Rate cuts will not entice companies to expand, despite Washington’s insistence that they would, as employers lack confidence in the future.”
Another fabrication by the source. If rates go down companies are more able to expand. Confidence? Not good to float opinions as facts. Short term may be rocky but it’s clear the economy is headed in the right direction.
Economies are always cyclical.
Especially real estate.
Which went straight up since the end of the Great Recession.
However, the large corporate real estate home rental companies stopped buying in most markets a year ago.
This is now causing prices to retreat in multiple markets in the southern US. Most of the southern US markets topped in 2022/2023.
However, based on people now moving back up north there continues to be a shortage of homes in many northern markets. Like NH, IL, NY, CT. NH & CT continue to be one of the best housing markets in the country.
Even in Florida some markets are now over built(Miami) and prices are coming down. Although Orlando is now in the top ten for housing starts and permits in the USA. Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, NYC, LA & the valley, Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin are also in the top ten in volume. Roughly, in that order. All of these markets except are down from a year or two ago, but they continue to lead the rest of the country in actual VOLUME of Starts/Permits.
The fastest growing metro areas 2024/2025 right now are Columbus and Richmond.
Where as Boise and Vegas are now building more than San Fran and Seattle.
The other thing that is causing more houses to come on the market in places like Austin is the AirBnB bubble.
Lots of condos/houses/apartments were being bought just to rent weekly/daily. In some of these metro areas the occupancy rates have fallen to the point they are no longer profitable. Therefore, many are being sold now because they can’t cover the mortgage, taxes and other expenses based on the rent they are now getting.
Apparently, this is not the case in Euro cities like Florence and Barcelona. There has become such a huge amount of Air BnB rentals in these cites that the locals can’t afford to live there anymore.
I remember that time frame because I grew up in Peoria. The country was in recession and the UAW dummies struck CAT for over 7 months. The union caved and got nothing for their strike effort. Up until then, that was the nastiest strike at CAT. The UAW went after CAT again in the 90s and limped off with their tail between legs.
Which is one way of saying, America don’t need all these freeloading illegal aliens. We’ve got self cleaning toilets and robotic lawn mowers. You can buy all the chips and salsa you want at Walmart.
The summer of 1982 was the end of the economic life of America
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Not according to statistics. The USD purchasing power dropped a whopping 75 percent between 1970 and 1980…I remember well 12 percent mortgages ( I had one), money market accounts paying 16 percent interest, and Gold from $35 oz to $800 an oz.
The early 80’s we were on our way to recovery.
Rick Rule: “The Only Way to Honor $100 Trillion in Debt Is to Devalue the Dollar”
July 14, 2025 1:34 pm by Alex Mark
“The circumstance that we existed in from 1980 to 2020 — while it was very pleasant — is over,” says Rick Rule, legendary investor and founder of Rule Investment Media. Speaking with Daniela Cambone at the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Rule warns that the era of low interest rates has ended, and U.S. dollar hegemony is weakening.
“It seems to me that the only way that you honor the nominal value of our obligations… is by devaluing the purchasing power,” he says, pointing to over $100 trillion in entitlements and debt. “You honor the nominal obligation of Social Security to an old geezer like me by continuing to pay him $4,000 a month… but by devaluing the dollar.”
Looking back at history, Rule points out that in the 1970s, the purchasing power of the dollar “declined by 75%,” and that “the gold price ran 30-fold.” He believes the setup is repeating and this time, “we are in a gold and gold equities bull market.” No, we’re not waiting for it. We’re here,” he concludes.…
At the very least, history rhymes. Study that decade to Prosper.
“Odd Economy”.
With handouts, hours of social media, robotics, and stronger illegal drugs everywhere, there may not be any real American workers to fill employment openings...
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