Well I’d say the Russians refined it to an art form: 2 million dead in WWI, disputed but perhaps around 15 million combat deaths in WWII. Soldiers sent into combat with less than one rifle per man, unarmed human wave tactics, incompetent leadership, competent general officers slaughtered by the government on suspicion of disloyalty, etc. all because their government simply didn’t, and doesn’t, care a whit about their people
GDP = C(onsumption) + G(ovt Spending) + I(nvestment) + (Exports - Imports)
C tends to be the highest parameter in the equation for all countries. The G number, running a $1.5T deficit (that’s even with tariff income), is avoidance of the US having to declare negative GDP growth. Deficit about 6% GDP.
For Russia, they will come in with a 2025 deficit of about 5T rubles. This will be 3% of GDP. The price of oil has fallen 8% since Sept 2024 and Rosneft and Lukoil (and even Gazpromneft) pay royalty taxes on their oil revenues. So that 8% extends to lower tax revenue and increased deficit.
Overall G increase has been only 20%, not all of it military. This has not offset the loss of tax revs.
Russian GDP growth projected about 2% 2025. Down from 4% 2024.
OPEC+ is taking action (largely verbal) to flood the market with oil and accelerate the peak and decline of US shale output. OPEC is 12 countries, and the + is an additional 11 countries, only Russia of which has big oil output. Note that with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Russia, the OPEC+ announcement of unwinding the voluntary production constraints means largely nothing. Countries had been ignoring the constraint (somewhat traditional in OPEC) and producing to capacity. Several of the countries are seeing that capacity decline, given they are past peak.
So the production increases are largely limited to Russia and KSA. Most revenue increases from the extra flow will go to them.