If that’s the case, Putin really screwed his own pooch.
He may have gained some land, but he ends up with Euro troops right on that border, and Euro-NATO defense spending more than doubled. He could have easily forced a solution without invading Ukraine, in which Ukraine was allowed into NATO eventually, but, much as happened with the former East Germany, only Ukrainian troops would be in Ukraine, and no long range NATO weapons would be in Ukraine. To this day, the Baker promise to Goby has been kept: The only NATO troops in the former East Germany are Germans. Even more important, Euro-NATO would have stayed mired in complacency. I highly doubt it would have even made the 2% of GDP defense spending goal, while huge Russian oil and gas profits would have continued.
He may have gained some land, but he ends up with Euro troops right on that border, and Euro-NATO defense spending more than doubled.
From the Russian point of view, they need Ukraine as a buffer state.
But Putin is failing to do that.