[Hey, tiny Vietnam (Back the a pop. of about 50M.) and they kicked China’s butt in 1979. One month and China cried uncle.]
It was the first confirmation that the Chinese had begun the withdrawal they had announced lastweekend.
The analysts’ reports were supported by broadcasts from Hanoi that continued to accuse China of acts of war, the burning and looting of property and the destruction of some houses and a hospital.
The analysts said that Vietnamese troops were not interfering with the retreat. In the analysts’ view, Vietnam’s forces and supplies have been depleted beyond the point where Hanoi can offer significant resistance or even pursue the retreating Chinese.
However, the analysts reported that a major movement of troops, equipment and supplies was under way from the south by road, rail, air and sea.
The analysts believe that the provincial Vietnamese troops, who bore the brunt of the fighting that began Feb. 17, have suffered such heavy casualties and have become so disorganized as a result of the invasion that they had to be replaced with regular troops, even if the border war is drawing to an end.
During the height of the battle for the provincial capital of Lang Son, captured by Chinese troops last weekend, Vietnam threw one regular division, as well as armor and artillery support units, into the struggle. But they had no more success than the provincial irregulars in keeping the Chinese from taking the town.
It was after their victory at Lang Son, never conceded by Hanoi, that the Chinese announced their intention to withdraw. Analysts interpreted this as a message to Vietnam that China had the ability to seize any military target in Vietnam.
In view of Vietnam’s intensive resupplying and remanning of the border zone, the analysts said that, whatever the outcome of the fighting, China had achieved a long‐term diversion of Vietnamese manpower, supplies, attention and energy to the border region.]
And without the restraint vis-a-vis civilians exhibited by US political leaders, China’s army in Vietnam was able to wage a war of extermination, to kill everyone it saw, much as Greek and Roman armies often did. They did it for much the same reasons - fighting guerrillas is resource intensive, can impoverish the conqueror. The upshot is that what would have worked in the face of US restraint failed against a China willing to kill every last man, woman and child in its area of operations.
Of course, Vietnam did realize the USSR was a feckless ally, but China couldn't control that.
China is an inward-facing country. They've never been good at projecting their power outward.