A predictable opening salvo from Russian negotiation.
Trump is trying to get some land back for Zelensky.
The likely play is . . . yes, Zelensky gets the land north of Sumy and Kharkiv returned from the Russians. A small chunk of Dnipro— too. Then it gets tricky. The Crimea is off the table. 100% Russian by right of conquest and 10 years.
The two northern oblasts are 100% occupied by Russian troops and that will not change.
The southern two oblasts are only partly occupied by Russian troops, but they voted to join Russia. So the agreement will likely cut them at the line of combat. Russia won’t get all of them, despite the vote.
That’s how the land trades and what Trump gets back for Ukraine.
Biggest negotiation obstacle, land-wise? The nuclear power station that has been in Russian held territory since 2022.
Order of action, armistice US/Russia over the land split, US shuts off all sanctions, conditional ceasefire with no NATO troops or EU troops (though I suspect that is another compromise, maybe 100 EU troops that threaten nothing.)
NATO membership could not happen regardless because NATO requires a country to have full control of its territory to be a member. Ukraine would have to agree and sign to have even a chance at NATO. They won’t agree to the land loss, so they can’t join NATO.
The collective West needs to stop pretending Russia isn't a reliable provider of energy. Russia will keep ZNPP and provide electric power to Ukraine at a reasonable cost. The "obstacle" will be getting the Zelenski regime to accept that reality.