A Scientist Says He’s Solved the Bermuda Triangle, Just Like That

I think that’s been known for a long time.

Next, he needs to debunk Gorebal Warning.

I’ve read that the insurance rates are no higher than one would expect for that region’s weather and conditions, and insurance companies would know.

A “Scientist Says He’s Solved the Bermuda Triangle, Just Like That: And it’s “ probabilities are the leading cause of the Bermuda Triangle disappearances”

Aren’t probabilities the cause of anything happening?

Damn. I’ve been hoping Flight 19 would show up from one of these UFOs everyone has been going ape shiite over.

I heard this theory about probability decades ago. It’s an old theory.

Family story:

My grandfather was a pilot, ran a flight school in Westchester NY. Used to fly with a local flying club in the 1930s and 1940s. One weekend he and 3 other pilots flew down to Bermuda. On the flight back to the US, my grandfather was flying his Piper Cub without instruments, the rest were flying by instrument...he watched them veer off east as he was headed northwest. (Cubs didn't have radio.) The other pilots never returned.

I have searched for confirmation of this handed-down story but haven't seen anything that matches the details, so it may well be apocryphal.

"That's what they'd like you to believe."

Ever since I learned the full details of the five WWII torpedo bombers (they were even featured in Close Encounters) I realized it’s all explainable. Those guys just ignored their compasses because they thought they were over one land mass when they were really over a different one. If they’d followed their compasses they would have been fine.

Stuff like that. And then the TV shows over the last six decades sensationalize normal stuff.

>>Gorebal Warning

Clever. Never heard that one before.

Article should have pic of the triangle’s location. Doesn’t.

I’ve been through it several times (1972-75). I did go bald early.

Booze has to be in there too.

That’s just what an alien would say...

What Grok says

To provide a more detailed response about your grandfather’s experience and the context of his Bermuda flight, I’ll explore the history of Westchester, NY, flying clubs in the 1930s and 1940s, the aviation environment of the time, and any records or context about lost flights to Bermuda during that era. I’ll also address the navigational challenges that might explain why your grandfather, flying a Piper Cub without instruments, made it back while the other pilots, using instruments, were lost. Since you didn’t provide specific details like the exact year, your grandfather’s name, or the types of planes the others were flying, I’ll work with the available information and the historical context from the provided search results, while also considering broader aviation history. If you can share additional details, I can refine the search further.

Context of Westchester, NY, Aviation in the 1930s and 1940s
Your grandfather was likely based at Westchester County Airport (HPN), known as Reynolds Field in the 1940s before being renamed. This airport was a hub for general aviation, including flight schools and flying clubs, during the 1930s and 1940s. The Westchester Flying Club, still active today at HPN, has roots dating back to at least the 1960s, but earlier clubs existed in the area, often using planes like the Piper J-3 Cub for training and recreational flights. These clubs were tight-knit communities of pilots who shared resources, organized group flights, and sometimes undertook ambitious trips like the one to Bermuda you described.

Flight schools in Westchester were common, as the region’s proximity to New York City and its affluent population supported a vibrant general aviation scene. Your grandfather running a flight school suggests he was an experienced pilot, likely familiar with the Piper Cub’s capabilities and limitations. The Piper J-3 Cub, introduced in the mid-1930s, was a light, single-engine aircraft with a cruising speed of about 75-85 mph and a range of roughly 200-300 miles (depending on fuel and modifications). Flying it to Bermuda—approximately 700-800 miles from New York—would have required careful planning, likely including a stop for refueling (possibly in the Carolinas or another coastal point) or a custom fuel tank, as the Cub’s standard range was insufficient for a nonstop flight.

The Bermuda Flight and Navigational Challenges
The story of your grandfather’s flight to Bermuda and the loss of the other three pilots is striking, especially given the contrast between his visual navigation and their reliance on instruments. Let’s break down the context and possible reasons for the outcome:

Navigation in the 1930s and 1940s:

Visual Navigation (Your Grandfather’s Method): Without instruments, your grandfather likely used dead reckoning—calculating position based on compass headings, airspeed, time, and wind estimates. Over water, pilots relied on visual cues like wave patterns, the sun’s position, or stars at night. The Piper Cub’s low speed and simple design allowed pilots to “feel” the wind and make real-time adjustments. This method, while less precise, avoided reliance on potentially faulty early instruments.
Instrument Navigation (Other Pilots): In the 1930s, instrument flying was in its infancy. The first comprehensive instrument navigation package wasn’t used until 1929 by James Doolittle, and even by the 1940s, instruments like gyrocompasses, altimeters, and early radio navigation aids were prone to errors, especially over long distances without ground-based radio beacons. If the other pilots were flying planes with basic instruments (e.g., Stinson Detroiter, Cessna, or similar light aircraft common in flying clubs), they might have trusted malfunctioning equipment or miscalibrated readings, leading them to veer east into the open Atlantic.

The Bermuda Route’s Dangers:

The flight from Westchester to Bermuda was a bold undertaking. Bermuda, about 760 miles from New York, was considered a risky destination in 1930, as noted in accounts of the first successful flight by William Alexander, Lewis Yancey, and Zeh Bouck in a Stinson Detroiter seaplane. They faced strong headwinds, limited fuel, and no radio navigation aids, landing on the sea 60 miles north of Bermuda due to low fuel and darkness.

The Bermuda Triangle’s reputation for disappearances, cemented later by events like the 1945 loss of Flight 19, highlights the region’s challenges: unpredictable weather, magnetic anomalies (though exaggerated in popular myth), and vast stretches of ocean with no landmarks. Your grandfather’s flight likely occurred in the 1930s or early 1940s, before Flight 19 but after the 1930 first flight, placing it in an era when navigation was still rudimentary.

Why the Others Were Lost:

Instrument Failure or Misinterpretation: If the other pilots relied on early gyrocompasses or magnetic compasses, they could have been misled by equipment malfunctions or magnetic variations near Bermuda. For example, Flight 19’s leader, Charles Taylor, became disoriented in 1945 due to compass failure and flew east instead of west, running out of fuel. A similar error could have caused the other pilots to veer east, away from the US coast.
Weather: Sudden storms or fog, common in the Atlantic, could have disoriented the instrument-flying pilots, especially if they lacked visual references to correct their course. Your grandfather, flying visually, might have stayed below clouds or used wave patterns to maintain his northwest heading.
Fuel Exhaustion: The Piper Cub’s limited range suggests your grandfather may have planned a conservative route or refueled en route. The other planes, possibly larger with longer ranges, might have pushed their fuel limits, expecting to rely on instruments to find land, only to miss their target.

Group Dynamics: If the three pilots were flying in formation and following a lead pilot with faulty instruments, they might have collectively veered off course, a common issue in early group flights.

Your Grandfather’s Survival:

Flying a Piper Cub without instruments forced your grandfather to rely on his skill and situational awareness. The Cub’s slow speed (about 75 mph) gave him more time to react to environmental cues, like wind shifts or ocean currents. His northwest heading suggests he correctly aimed for the US mainland, possibly using the sun or stars as a guide. His experience as a flight instructor likely honed his ability to navigate under challenging conditions.

Notable Bermuda Flight Incidents in the 1930s and 1940s
The search results provide some context on Bermuda-related aviation incidents, though none directly match a group of three pilots lost in the 1930s or 1940s. Here are relevant cases that might relate:

1930 First Flight (Stinson Detroiter): The first successful flight to Bermuda from New York, by Alexander, Yancey, and Bouck, involved a Stinson SM-1 Detroiter seaplane. They landed on the sea due to low fuel and completed the journey the next day, April 2, 1930. The plane’s gyrocompass and possibly a propeller were donated to a Bermuda museum but are now lost. This flight highlights the navigational challenges your grandfather’s group faced.
1939 Cavalier Flying Boat Crash: A Short Brothers Cavalier flying boat, operating between Long Island and Bermuda, crashed on January 21, 1939, with 10 survivors and 3 fatalities. This was a commercial flight, not a flying club trip, but it underscores the route’s dangers.
1945 Flight 19 Disappearance: Five US Navy Avenger bombers and a rescue Mariner disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle on December 5, 1945. The lead pilot’s compass failure led them east, mirroring the potential fate of your grandfather’s companions.

No records in the search results specifically mention a 1930s or 1940s flying club trip from Westchester where three pilots were lost, but the lack of centralized accident records from that era (especially for private flights) makes this unsurprising. The Bermuda Triangle’s history of missing aircraft suggests such incidents were not uncommon.

Westchester Flying Clubs and Flight Schools
The Westchester Flying Club, based at HPN, has been active since at least the 1960s, but earlier clubs likely existed in the 1930s and 1940s, given the airport’s history. Your grandfather’s flight school may have been affiliated with a club or operated independently, training pilots on planes like the Piper Cub. These clubs often organized group flights for adventure or publicity, which could explain the Bermuda trip. The Cub was a staple for training due to its simplicity and affordability, but itsastrip its use for long-distance flights over water was rare and risky, suggesting your grandfather was a skilled and confident pilot.

Next Steps for Deeper Research
Without specific details (e.g., year, names, or plane types), pinpointing the exact incident is challenging. However, I can suggest further avenues:

Bermuda Historical Society or National Museum of Bermuda: They may have records of private flights or relics from the era, though the 1930 Stinson’s artifacts are unaccounted for.

Westchester County Historical Society: They hold records like 1947 aerial views of Reynolds Field and might have archives on local flying clubs or flight schools.
Aviation Accident Databases: Sites like LOSTFLIGHTS or the Quester Files catalog missing aircraft, but private flights from the 1930s/1940s are less documented.

Local Newspapers: Archives from Westchester or Bermuda newspapers (e.g., The Bermudian, 1930) might mention the flight, especially if it was a notable club event.

Questions for You
To narrow the search:

What was your grandfather’s name?
What was the approximate year of the flight (e.g., early 1930s, late 1930s, early 1940s)?
Do you know the types of planes the other pilots were flying (e.g., Stinson, Cessna, etc.)?
Was the flight school or club associated with a specific name or location at Westchester County Airport?
Are there any family records, logbooks, or stories that mention the other pilots or the flight’s purpose?

With these, I could search for specific accident reports or newspaper articles. For now, the story aligns with the era’s aviation challenges: your grandfather’s reliance on visual navigation likely saved him, while the others’ trust in early, unreliable instruments may have led them astray, a tragic but plausible outcome given incidents like Flight 19.
If you’d like me to focus on a specific aspect (e.g., Westchester flight school history, Bermuda Triangle incidents, or Piper Cub capabilities), or if you can provide more details, let me know! I can also search X or other archives for mentions of similar flights or generate a chart comparing navigation methods if you’re interested in visualizing the data.

I heard this theory about probability decades ago. It’s an old theory.

As the article itself notes, it's over 50 years old, and still the leading theory.

A US audience might not know, but the 'scientist' in question is an Aussie who is one of those guys who started out as an actual scientist, but for decades now has made a career publishing books (almost 50) and making media appearances, and very little else. He's a "science communicator".

He's one of those media talking-head "experts" who hasn't done any actual scientific work in decades. And like virtually all of them, he's full of folksy, down-to-earth anecdotes of utterly questionable veracity, completely lacking in proof, that always happen to paint him in a good light...

Didn’t Andrei lose another submarine somewhere around there?

cuban leaf wrote: “Ever since I learned the full details of the five WWII torpedo bombers (they were even featured in Close Encounters) I realized it’s all explainable. Those guys just ignored their compasses because they thought they were over one land mass when they were really over a different one. If they’d followed their compasses they would have been fine.”

Actually, it was the flight commander’s fault when he chose to ignore his compass even when other flyers questioned his judgement.

Not a big surprise to anyone who has watched some junior officers trying to navigate using a compass.

This topic always reminds me of "In Search Of"

I read the Charles Berlitz book many times as a kid.