Pro-Russian posters contend that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was to limit NATO encroaching on its border. However, prior to the invasion of Ukraine, there were already five NATO countries bordering Russia (six if you count the United States’ maritime boundary): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Norway, and Poland. Since the invasion, Finland and Sweden have been convinced by Russia’s actions of the need for them to join NATO, also. The addition of Finland doubles NATO’s boundary with Russia. This now makes six countries bordering Russia—eight if you count the United States and Sweden, which have maritime boundaries.
If Russia’s plan in attacking Ukraine was to avoid NATO on its border, it obviously wasn’t thinking clearly. In addition, there are certain prior geographic issues worth noting:
If Russia decides to end the war by settling for control of four or five Ukrainian oblasts, then the rest of Ukraine will still be on its border.
If it conquers all of Ukraine, then the border with Poland would be greatly expanded.
Hmmm....Perhaps the NATO expansion was just an excuse. Naahh. Couldn’t be.
Putin wanted Moldova, too. And his scheme was to create a triad of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine with Yanukovich as the supreme leader of the triad.
Prior to all this, NATO was no offensive military threat to Russia, with or without Ukraine. It (NATO, and especially Euro-NATO) had weakened itself far too much to even think about attacking Russia. What threat there was, was cultural and societal, should Ukraine with the help of the Euros be able to throw off its old Russian style pervasive corruption, and utilize its considerable natural resources to efficiently develop the country. Putin also argued his SMO was to rid Ukraine of Nazis, when in reality there were very few real Nazis in Ukraine, and they had no real power.
There still are not all that many Nazis in Ukraine, but, now Putin has created utter hatred of Russia in most of Ukraine’s remaining population. Some gain that is.
Putin has also caused the Euro-NATO nations to at least “commit” to 5% of GDP for defense, a number that if sustained would be quite enough to turn just Euro-NATO alone into a quite credible threat to Russia - with or without Ukraine, but a bit more so “with” Ukraine as an ally, even if not a NATO member.
And now, President Trump appears to be truly hacked at the Russians, too. Threatening the US (again) and threatening nukes (again) is just about the dumbest thing the Russians could do.
Putin and his advisers no doubt thought they could reproduce their success in grabbing Crimea. Their miscalculation was stupendous.
Even Tsar Nicolas II looks like a genius compared to this.
“prior to the invasion of Ukraine, there were already five NATO countries bordering Russia”
“Finland and Sweden have been convinced by Russia’s actions of the need for them to join NATO”
*****
“Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia”
These were and are at too great a risk themselves to likely present a defense problem to Russia.
“Norway” - not positioned to be a great threat
“Finland and Sweden have been convinced by Russia’s actions of the need for them to join NATO”
Finland was long thought by Russia to be a tamed country. It was and is at too great risk itself to present a problem to Russia.
“Poland” is a capable country that despises Russia, but except for the Kaliningrad region (German until late 1944), it was separated from Russia by the buffer states of Belarus and Ukraine.
There is no buffer between Russia and Ukraine. Putin and RF forces are now building one. Trump needs to be patient or tell the Ukrainians to pull back about 10 miles.
The war proved that Ukraine in 2021 was roughly equal to Russian Federation (RF) militarily.
Ukraine and Poland together would have been expected to be superior to RF militarily.
Ukraine, Poland and a few other NATO countries together could have been expected to be far superior to RF militarily.
The presidency of the incompetent Biden gave the RF an opportunity to do away with the Ukraine-based threat. Only Russian military leadership incompetence blocked success.
The further from Moscow NATO is or could be, the safer Putin would feel.
It is the distance from the Kremlin that matters most.
Russia has always considered Ukraine to be its "soft underbelly" and also an integral part of Russian history and culture. All parts of Russian society believe this - liberal, conservative, communist, oligarchs, etc... Any student of Russian history and culture knows this. It's not new and certainly wasn't invented by Putin.
This same thinking does NOT apply to Poland, Finland, Sweden or the places you mentioned.
Moreover, neocons (and their promoters on FR) like to say it's nonsense. Present day Russia has no claim to Ukraine or should have strategic considerations therein.
So be it. But if you wish to control Ukraine, be prepared to fight Russia, in an existential war.
and its not me saying it
Here's original neocon Zbigniew Brzezinski saying it
Or if you don't like him, here's former CIA Director William Burns saying it