I see, Putin’s invasion cannot “lead to war”, but Trump trying to get a ceasefire can. ROFWL
What that tells you is what was clear all along - Putin has his military objectives and nothing will change that.
Probabilities. Who has white hat or black hat . . . just ignore that. Probabilities.
What are the odds more sanctions — on India or China — will do anything?
They have to have Russian oil. They could perhaps reduce their consumption to the point of food not being delivered to grocery store shelves by trucks, but that becomes instant starvation. What are the odds either China or India would accept that?
It is popular to imagine that there is oil waste. There really isn’t much. The Covid event reduced global oil consumption less than 10%. With all the reduction in economic activity, people still had to consume oil — because they have to eat. Oil is life.
There is also the problem of the tariff negotiations with China being (allegedly) done. These new sanctions would abrogate any such agreement (and eliminate neodymium magnets from . . . probably everywhere (to prevent transship to the US)). I am not sure but I think India’s tariff “deal” is also in place? It would be abrogated and India backstabbed, too.
Nothing changes in all this. There is nothing new in this. Russia’s processes will not change because there is no reason to.