EV Update: Will The Market Survive The Expiration Of The Federal Tax Credit?

Manhattan Contrarian ^ | 26 Jul, 2025 | Francis Menton

[MtnClimber]

Sorry Elon.

[MtnClimber]

Manhattan Contrarian ping

[fruser1]

My prediction is their prices will drop.

[joshua c]

another result will be safer gas cars

they will be larger

and they wont be made out of plastic

[Skwor]

My prediction is they go back to making Golf Carts. The market never supported a working business model for EVs outside a very small niche (and expensive) group.

Truth is, without subsidies, the “family EV” is basically not profitable on a large scale.

[Tell It Right]

Thanks for posting. I didn't know that the OBBB removed the penalty for not adhering to the CAFE standards. That's yuge!

As far as the headline goes, the EV market was already practically nothing even with the EV tax credit in place. The fad is over and hardly anybody else was buying EV's.

[Mouton]

Hopefully they retool and bring back sixes and eights that don’t need turbo thrust.

[Lovely-Day-For-A-Guinness]

It will return to the 1930's when Detroit Electric, one of the last major manufacturers of EV's, finally went belly-up in 1939 after the market decided which was better for transporting people and goods, EV or IC.

And so it should today.

[dfwgator]

The only good EVs..

[Tell It Right]

Truth is, without subsidies, the “family EV” is basically not profitable on a large scale.

I respectfully disagree. It's families in particular that can get practical use from an EV. I wouldn't get an EV as an only car, because there are some long trips that don't have plenty of fast chargers. Or perhaps a long trip in the north during the winter. Those are times a gas car is practically a must. Thus, families (i.e. needing two cars, not a single person needing just one car) are the ones for which one car being an EV might be having the best of both worlds (one EV and one gas car). The single people (read: need just one car) are the ones I think an EV would be a bad car for.

Even for families, I wouldn't get an EV unless you drive it plenty of miles with home charged miles. "Home charged" means don't live in an apartment where you can't set up a charger. So again, families are the best options for EV's because families are the ones more likely to be homeowners. And "plenty of miles" IMHO comes out to about 12K miles per year (the threshold where gas savings of an EV top the extra costs that come with an EV, at least that was the case 3 years ago when I researched it). My wife and I drive our EV 18K miles per year -- the gas savings and oil change savings is very significant. We no longer say "her car" and "his truck". Whichever one of us drives that day takes the EV to save on gas (unless of course it involves pickup chores).

[Sacajaweau]

It wasn’t surviving with the subsidies...so let’s take a wild guess.

[Skwor]

The risk of an EV on home charge alone makes it a bad idea, the fire hazard is a real concern. AND Still way easier to buy a cheap ICE then an EV. EV imo is neither practical nor sensible, it is a niche luxury item at best.

[Socon-Econ]

My guess: there will still be an EV market, but it will be smaller. The end of subsidies will reduce demand, but EVs still have advantages and emotional appeal for certain groups.

[Blueflag]

My EV always home-charges outside.

But then again, it’s an F-150 Lightning ;-)

AND I got a **GREAT** deal on it money-wise.

SO hate all ya want, it’s a great vehicle. AND it has FAR more power than my 2012 F-150 I traded in for it. 310 legit miles range in the summer so far.

[Lovely-Day-For-A-Guinness]

...the fire hazard is a real concern

A few weeks ago we took our truck on a ferry to Long Island. On the return trip, we were the first car on and had nothing but the sea in front of our position at the stern. The car adjacent to us was a Tesla. The entire time I was thinking about whether the thing would light up, and if it did there was no way to push it overboard.

I'm sure some EV-boi, perhaps one who owns a mustang, will chirp about more ICE automobiles catch fire than EV's. That's true, but it's uncommon for ICE vehicles to combust spontaneously when the engine isn't running. Accidents and neglect are the major reasons ICE vehicles burn.

[Sacajaweau]

You mean like my big old Buick.

My 1984 Monte remains my favorite.

[hal ogen]

Hopefully not. Few want to purchase these high-end golf carts...unless US Taxpayers are forced to subsidize them.

[mewzilla]

Mr. Musk, how about electric train travel?

Make train travel great again.

[alternatives?]

“My prediction is they go back to making Golf Carts.”

I would say small commuter cars and hybrids. There would be a market and they can improve both over time expanding their market. Government mandates are never a good idea particularly to solve an imaginary crisis.