The 100% Trump tariff is on Russia’s trading partners, too.
Know the numbers or you know nothing:
China’s oil consumption is 16 million barrels/day. Their domestic production in the Daquing region (northeast) is under 5 million bpd. So 11 million b/d must import. To the surprise of many, that consumption grew very little last year after a multi year average of about 4%.
India’s oil consumption is over 5 million bpd with domestic production of < 1 mbpd. So 4 mbpd must import.
The world in its entirety produces 99ish million bpd and consumes 101 mbpd. The differential is storage on tankers enroute.
Point being, China and India MUST have oil to fuel trucks that move food to grocery stores. Russia produces about 11 mbpd (with the OPEC+ upticks) and consumes only 3.6 mbpd. The rest exports, and that is a number too large for China and India to find elsewhere.
There are a zillion articles around about Pioneer and other Permian shale players announcing the end of Tier 1 and Tier 2 rock. Those numbers above get hit very hard if US output reflects decline in shale.
India might have a problem but doubt Russia or China will.....they’ve been shoring up for years now.