Posted on 07/05/2025 8:07:50 AM PDT by delta7
It’s been a spectacular 2025 for precious metals so far. Will it continue into H2? With fiat currencies losing credibility, the answer is a resounding YES
In quiet trading during a week foreshortened by US Independence Day, gold has held up well, while silver has been squeezed higher. In European trading this morning, gold was $4,340, up $65 from last Friday’s close and silver at $36.80 was up 86 cents.
Monday was the last trading session of the first half of this calendar year, and precious metals have beaten the socks off all other investment categories.
Platinum is up 47%, palladium 24%, gold 23%, and silver 22.7%. Even copper previously recognised as monetary in coinage was up 21%.
On behalf of their clients, portfolio managers hold almost none of these categories or their derivatives. Their mindsets are stuck in Nasdaq, up 6%, the S&P up 4%, and the 30-year T-bond up 1%. On these numbers, no one appears to be complaining to their managers —yet.
But there is a silent cohort which is losing big money: foreign investors who own nearly $40 trillion invested in dollar-denominated deposits and underlying financial assets. The dollar’s trade weighted index has declined a net 10.7% since 1 January, wiping out modest gains in equities and bonds. The TWI’s chart is shown next:
For now, against other currencies the dollar appears to be in free-fall. And it is no comfort to foreigners that President Trump is racking up more debt and calling for a lower dollar and lower interest rates. Foreigners will increasingly realise the prospect of currency losses is wiping out the value of underlying financial investments. The prospect of a dollar cascading lower is highly likely when $40 trillion seeks an exit.
Not that other currencies are in a better position, demonstrated in the UK this week. Starmer’s government failed to force through some relatively minor changes to welfare costs, alerting everyone to the political impossibility of reducing spending at a time when tax revenues are falling short due to the unarguable calculus of the Laffer curve. The top 1% of UK earners pay 30% of all income tax receipts and thanks to the chancellor’s first budget, these milk cows are leaving in droves.
This is the developing background for gold and silver for the rest of the year. Gold is on an unstoppable tear:
price has found solid support in the region of the 55-day moving average. Importantly, the long-term 12-month MA is gaining upward momentum, which is immensely bullish limiting any price consolidation.
Comex open interest is still remarkably low, confirming that the gold price is running away without speculative interest. This is next:
It is further confirmation of investor indifference. Just imagine what happens when investors realise that they are missing the best game in town.
When they do, they will probably buy silver on the basis that gold has already risen but silver has been left behind, with a gold/silver ratio still over 90. That being the case, silver’s surge is in its infancy:
Again, we see moving average momentum accelerating in a commodity which has been in supply deficit for several years. Silver is a more restricted market than gold and therefore more volatile.
It is not so much gold, silver, and other metal prices rising bullishly, but led by the dollar fiat currencies are rapidly losing purchasing power. Evidence is mounting that the fiat currency era is coming to an end.
Central banks realise this, which is why they are scrambling to secure bullion in place of dollars in their reserves. National wealth funds and wealthy Chinese and Indian families are also buying. In the first half of this year, stand-for-deliveries on Comex’s main gold contract totalled over 24 million ounces (746.5 tonnes), a rate that’s accelerating from H2 2024’s 649 tonnes. Comex has become a source of supply for foreign buyers of gold bullion.
Silver’s stand-for-deliveries in H1 2025 were over 250 million ounces at 7,786 tonnes. Much if this demand is likely to be commercial. Nevertheless, it will put a squeeze on markets desperate for physical liquidity.
https://brics.br/en/news/brics-summit-will-be-held-in-rio-de-janeiro-on-july-6-7
BRICS Summit will be held in Rio de Janeiro on July 6-7.
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I don’t expect many major announcements, however, should President Trump further weaponize the USD, the BRICS will ramp up their International settlement system.
Gold is $4340? Not yet, but that day is coming.
Gold is $4340?
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In EU paper currency….or possibly in the Pound as the reknowned author is from England. In any case, PM’s are smashing all the world’s paper currencies.
“The train is leaving the station….the Economic cycle is turning…all aboard!”
Interesting. You are always pushing buying gold but your sponsors are all selling gold ...
A website called “goldmoney” singing the praises of precious metals.
From this AI thingy.
“The U.S. dollar has declined significantly this year, losing over 10% of its value, primarily due to concerns about inflation, rising national debt, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies.
This decline affects everyday purchases and travel costs, making imported goods more expensive and reducing purchasing power for Americans.
Overview of the U.S. Dollar Decline
The U.S. dollar has experienced a significant decline in value, marking its worst start to a year in over 50 years. As of mid-2025, the dollar has fallen more than 10% against a basket of major foreign currencies.
Reasons for the Decline
Economic Policies and Trade Tensions
Tariff Policies: President Trump’s tariffs have created uncertainty, leading to decreased confidence among global investors.
Rising National Debt: Concerns about increasing U.S. debt levels have contributed to fears of inflation, which can devalue the dollar.
Investor Sentiment: Many investors no longer see the U.S. economy as the best option for growth, leading to a sell-off of dollar-denominated assets.
Interest Rates and Inflation
Rising Interest Rates: Typically, higher interest rates strengthen a currency. However, the dollar’s decline has occurred alongside rising rates, which is unusual and indicates deeper issues.
Inflation Concerns: Fears of inflation eroding purchasing power have led to a lack of confidence in the dollar as a safe haven.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar
For Consumers
Higher Prices: A weaker dollar can lead to increased costs for imported goods, affecting everyday purchases.
Travel Costs: Americans traveling abroad may find their money does not stretch as far due to unfavorable exchange rates.
For Investors
Shift in Investments: Investors are increasingly looking to other currencies and assets, such as gold, as alternatives to the dollar.
Impact on U.S. Financial Markets: A decline in foreign investment in U.S. assets could affect the overall stability of U.S. financial markets.
The ongoing decline of the dollar raises questions about its future as the world’s primary reserve currency and the potential for long-term economic impacts….”
“Gold is $4340? Not yet, but that day is coming.”
Back in the day, delta7 predicted gold would be at $5,000 in 2015.
Almost $7,000 in today’s dollars.
Argue with the numbers, not me. Facts are Facts, PM’s are exploding.
Argue with the numbers, not me. Facts are Facts, PM’s are exploding.
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…and the USD and all paper currencies are making significant declines. Purchasing power is tanking….that said, I do expect a USD rally before resuming its decline.
“Overview of the U.S. Dollar Decline
The U.S. dollar has experienced a significant decline in value,”
Dollar is about where it was in 1979 when the index was created.
Up 35% since 2008!
Bkmk
From this AI thingy.
“ The US Dollar Index has declined by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973. This drop is attributed to economic and political concerns, including high tariffs and rising deficits, leading to a sell-off of US assets by global investors.”
It important to note PM’s gains ( in USD’s, you can switch statistics to any other paper currency)
Www.goldprice.org
6 Months. +26.35%
1 Year +39.40%
5 Year +86.63%
Platinum up 45 percent in the last 6 months….wait till the paper and electron people take note.
The sponsors buy gold and sell it, too. They buy it at a discount and sell it at a premium. They’re in the biz.
“The sponsors buy gold and sell it, too. They buy it at a discount and sell it at a premium. They’re in the biz.”
Yep. In the biz of selling!
“5 Year +86.63%”
S&P 500 + 100% plus dividends.
Trump is badmouthing Powell to lower interest rates. If interest rates drop, the dollar will weaken even more and put more upward pressure on gold.
Our mining stocks have performed amazingly well over the past few months. And in the past 3 or 4 years, some of the stock prices have doubled. We keep looking for the sell point, but haven’t seen it yet.
Gold rose to near $3340 per ounce on Friday. A year ago, gold was at $2340 per oz. Six months ago it was at $2640.
Silver prices held firm above $36.80 per ounce on Friday, approaching 13-year highs. A year ago, silver was at around $26.50. Six months ago, at $30.35.
Yes. To sell, they have to buy — keep the merch moving.
I believe that’s a feature.
Trump et-al is steering the US into, as he phrases it, “the Golden Age”. This aligns with the OBBB (hastens the collapse of fiat) and USDebtClock.org.
The US had its own money (Constitution, Coin act of 1792), which has been whittled away, sometimes in big chunks (paper and inflation proponents from Alexander Hamilton, thru the War of 1812, Civil War, Fed Reserve, Nixon closing the gold window).
Can’t know exactly when, but the day is coming nonetheless to return to sound real money.
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