To my mind, it's not the nuclear program at issue as much as it is the missile delivery systems. I can't imagine the Norks, Pakis, or Russians wouldn't sell them one. Missiles are big enough to be trackable, even if they're mobile. The challenge is distinguishing a nuclear-capable vehicle and launch system.
A bit of data.
Nuclear forensics.
Don’t know if people were aware of this or not, but a nuclear explosion leaves a fingerprint of neutron flux as well as residual dust materials. The source of the uranium (or more likely plutonium) can be determined by the nature of that material and its flux. Remember, the entirety of weapons material in an explosion is not consumed. Its residual is collectable. This was done particularly for the Chinese test explosions a few decades ago, with products shipped by them having residual dust.
The material source, processing and even movement can be determined. The only limit on this is the presumption that material over the decades has been stolen. So an explosion over Tel Aviv might show US plutonium.
That would be an interesting week.
Unimportant. hamas and hezzies live to deliver truck bombs. Well, “live” for a while. Can also put it on any boat coming into an Israeli port.
Any nuke Iran gets will immediately to to Israel. And, then, Iran will be a blazing puddle for years to come. Not a good trade as Israel is the only democracy in the area.