Production over millions of years is not relevant to human timescales. Petroleum Geolgists have a very good idea of the existing oil in place that is recoverable by any means at any price point. Every basin on earth has been surveyed, studied and categorized. At 2024 levels of use liquid hydrocarbons have 46 years until depletion. That’s not the critical point the point where production cannot keep up with demand is the breaking point because that supply imbalance starts the price wars for resources.
Abiotic oil is a myth. No peer reviewed study anywhere has survived industry review or peer review. No one has ever presented to SEG, AAPG, GSA a single case of abiotic oil it’s always torn to shreds by geochemistry and isotopic analysis.
Oil is finite that’s just cold hard mathematics, we have 8+ billion people all clamoring for the decreasing resource base. Currently only 2 billion have Western levels of consumption and we have 46 years when not if the other 6 billion demand their share too it goes faster. You cannot drill your way out of this resource depletion curve the Permian has to keep drilling at full tilt to keep the rate as it is the decline curves for shale wells are peak 180s and than declines as Gemini to show you a typical type cure of a Permian basin shale well.
Figure 3. Art does a pretty solid analysis of this very issue. I drill there wells as petroleum geo the decline rates are increasing as the overall reservoir geo pressure drops due to depletion. ESP pumps don’t help that much the oil is bound to the shale by the atomic forces holding it in the pore spaces pumping won’t free it. Solvent replacement can sweep some to the production bore if you drill offset lateral injection wells for solvents or supercritical CO2...be ready for$$$$$$
https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/
Titan has entered the chat.
https://www.space.com/4968-titan-oil-earth.html
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/titans-surface-organics-surpass-oil-reserves-on-earth/
https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/titans-surface-organics-surpass-oil-reserves-on-earth/
The only thing I learned from that article is that Exxon is not one of that guy’s clients.