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Yet Another Estimate of When Iran Will Have the Bomb (old article, 2013)
OpinioJuris ^ | January 28, 2013 | OpinioJuris

Posted on 06/23/2025 8:30:38 AM PDT by yelostar

(Article from JANUARY 2013)

McClatchy reports that Israel now believes Iran will not be able to produce a nuclear weapon until 2015 or 2016.  That is progress of a sort; Netanyahu had previously been claiming that Iran would have the bomb no later than late summer 2013 — around six months from now.  But Israel is still insisting that Iran is only two or three years away from nuclear capability, so I think it is useful to recall and update the timeline I mentioned early last year of breathless Israeli and Western claims about Iran’s nuclear program:

(Excerpt) Read more at opiniojuris.org ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: bombing; iran; israel; jewhatersonfr; mullahloversonfr; multiplenicks; nukes; putinthewarpig; randpaulsucks; russiansuicide; russiantrollfarm; vladtheimploder
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1984: West German intelligence sources claim that Iran’s production of a bomb “is entering its final stages.” US Senator Alan Cranston claims Iran is seven years away from making a weapon.

1992: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells the Knesset that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

1995: The New York Times reports that US and Israeli officials fear “Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought” – less than five years away.  Netanyahu claims the time frame is three to five years.

1996: Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres claims Iran will have nuclear weapons in four years.

1998: Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld claims Iran could build an ICBM capable of reaching the US within five years.

1999: An Israeli military official claims that Iran will have a nuclear weapon within five years.

2001: The Israeli Minister of Defence claims that Iran will be ready to launch a nuclear weapon in less than four years.

2002: The CIA warns that the danger of nuclear weapons from Iran is higher than during the Cold War, because its missile capability has grown more quickly than expected since 2000 – putting it on par with North Korea.

2003: A high-ranking Israeli military officer tells the Knesset that Iran will have the bomb by 2005 — 17 months away.

2006: A State Department official claims that Iran may be capable of building a nuclear weapon in 16 days.

2008: An Israeli general tells the Cabinet that Iran is “half-way” to enriching enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon and will have a working weapon no later than the end of 2010.

2009: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak estimates that Iran is 6-18 months away from building an operative nuclear weapon.

2010: Israeli decision-makers believe that Iran is at most 1-3 years away from being able to assemble a nuclear weapon.

2011: An IAEA report indicates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within months.

2013: Israeli intelligence officials claim that Iran could have the bomb by 2015 or 2016.


The same framework of institutions, including sophisticated intelligence networks - have been singing the same song for DECADES.

Does being so profoundly wrong, so many times - build trust and confidence?

NOPE.

1 posted on 06/23/2025 8:30:38 AM PDT by yelostar
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To: yelostar

Bibi just had to find a president who could be sucked into Israel’s “wag the dog” strategy.


2 posted on 06/23/2025 8:33:32 AM PDT by PoeToaster
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To: yelostar

Cry wolf.


3 posted on 06/23/2025 8:36:13 AM PDT by Karliner (Heb 4:12 Rom 8:28 Rev 3, "...This is the end of the beginning." Churchill)
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To: yelostar

Atomic weapons are not that hard to build. Iran has likely had them for decades.

Delivery, however, is another matter. As is dealing with the aftermath of using them.

We won’t know for sure until they use them.


4 posted on 06/23/2025 8:38:50 AM PDT by TheDon (Remember the J6 political prisoners! Remember Ashli Babbitt!)
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To: yelostar

thankful to have found this thread, most of the time when I see FR threads its all about the BS and this time we really know its true -__-


5 posted on 06/23/2025 8:40:28 AM PDT by Katya (ultra skeptic)
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To: yelostar

Bookmark


6 posted on 06/23/2025 8:41:19 AM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: yelostar

The reason Iran didn’t succeed decades ago is Israel kept killing Iranian scientists, blowing stuff up, and even injecting computer viruses.

There’s an entire monument in Iran dedicated to nuclear scientists Israel has killed over the decades.

Stuxnet anyone? Assassins on motorcycles with sticky bombs?

Acting like Iran was not close is absurd. No, they were close repeatedly and Israel pulled off stunning victories.


7 posted on 06/23/2025 8:45:22 AM PDT by TheThirdRuffian (Orange is the new brown)
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To: PoeToaster

I’d say the oldest endless National Emergency re:Iran is closer to getting cancelled and off the US National Emergency list because of President Trump.

But your mileage can vary


8 posted on 06/23/2025 8:48:48 AM PDT by delchiante
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To: yelostar

Israel, through various acts of sabotage, has set back Iran’s nuke program many times over the decades. If they hadn’t, Iran would’ve had nukes long ago. What we’ve witnessed in the last week is just the most recent and ambitious (by far) of the set-back efforts.


9 posted on 06/23/2025 8:51:01 AM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: yelostar

Stuxnet virus set them back years


10 posted on 06/23/2025 8:59:05 AM PDT by oil_dude
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To: yelostar

Tulsi now agrees. Guess she won’t mind blood on her hands after all.


11 posted on 06/23/2025 9:00:33 AM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: PoeToaster

You mean Reagan?


12 posted on 06/23/2025 9:36:49 AM PDT by nickcarraway ( )
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To: Mr. Mojo

Wasn’t this similar to Israel’s Operation Opera in 1981?


13 posted on 06/23/2025 9:38:47 AM PDT by nickcarraway ( )
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To: yelostar

Why wouldn’t Iran obtain nukes?


14 posted on 06/23/2025 10:12:20 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Burma Shave)
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