During Reagan “the math” said revenue would go down with lower rates.
In 6 years the revenue grew 100%.
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1Q027SBEA
A chart of historical tax receipts.
Q1 1981 $389B Note the Carter years with no tax cut
started at $204B 1976Q4 Sharp rise
in those 4 yrs (pre Reagan, because
population)
Q1 1989 $610B 100% growth would be $389X2 = $778B
This tax rev growth is about 5%/yr compounded
1980s population growth 0.9%/yr, NOT from birth rate.
About 28 million births over those 8 yrs. So because of immigration, the 11% pop gain concentrated in worker age people, amplifying the tax revenue increase.
Average annual inflation in the 1980s was about 4.5%, a sharp decrease after Volker applied brakes 1979 and into 1980s. So that’s a 4.5% per year increase in the number of dollars one will see in tax revs regardless of tax rates or population effects.
Read that again. The 5%/yr tax rev increase in the Reagan years came about from 4.5% inflation. And 0.9% inflation increase, probably higher for worker ages.
There is zero evidence from this that tax rate policy achieved anything.
So much wrong with that it’s not even funny.